Severe Wx NOT Expected Today… Thursday Update – 9:30am #alwx @wvua23
March 30, 2017 Leave a comment
Good Thursday morning! Above is the HRRR and the 3km Nam, some of our highest resolution models available, valid for the early to mid afternoon hours. As discussed for days, model data continued to hint at a large cluster of storms near the Gulf coast, blocking the inflow of unstable air into central Alabama, preventing a risk of severe weather for today into early tonight.
Radar trends and our high resolution models agree that a large shield of light to moderate rain will expand into west and portions of central Alabama by the early to mid afternoon, with a few isolated storms embedded in the rain mass. You may want to grab your umbrella this morning incase it is raining where you are this afternoon.
While from a synoptic scale, the setup is favorable for severe weather, it’s the smaller scale feature that will prevent severe weather issues, atleast for Alabama. Think of the large area of storms near the Gulf coast as a giant straw, sucking energy off the Gulf. Rather than that energy or unstable air feeding into central Alabama, the storms to our south are robbing that needed fuel for severe weather. On the north side of the cluster of storms, stable air spreads across the area, greatly reducing or totally eliminating a risk of severe weather for the rest of the day.
It wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep an eye on any changes through the afternoon, but go through your day as normal. There is no need to cancel events or cancel school in a setup like this. It is highly unlikely that our area will experience anything more than periods of showers and maybe some thunder in spots. As always, we’ll be watching trends incase of any surprises..
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist