Thoughts on Thursday EVE/Night Storms… Tuesday Update – 12:30pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Tuesday midday! We’re getting lots of questions about a risk of strong to severe storms on Thursday. After looking over tons of model data over the past 24 hours, I have noticed a trend that could prevent any severe weather issues in our area Thursday evening into Thursday night. The model image above is the 12z GFS, valid late Thursday night.

A surface low and upper air trough axis will be in a rather favorable position for a risk of strong to severe storms in Alabama, however, there is also a favorable setup for development of widespread thunderstorms near the coast. If you keep up with weather in Alabama and have through the years, you know widespread storms on the coast block the inflow of unstable air needed for severe weather in central Alabama. A large cluster of storms will suck the energy out of the atmosphere and basically leave our portion of central Alabama in rain with no severe weather.

Will this happen Thursday night? Based off our latest computer model data, there is excellent agreement in a Gulf Coast cluster of storms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Confidence in this scenario is high, so the risk of severe weather in central Alabama looks low at this time. At best, if storms develop in our portion of central Alabama, they could produce gusty winds and isolated areas of small hail, but widespread severe weather would not happen. Keep in mind, if the storms are not on the coast, that would put us into a higher risk of strong to severe storms. Fortunately, I don’t see any evidence of our risk increasing at the moment.

Late Thursday afternoon into the pre-dawn hours Friday morning, have a source of weather information incase the setup and risk change. I will say this… if you see a big cluster of storms near the Louisiana to Alabama Gulf Coast Thursday afternoon, consider that a positive sign that central Alabama will deal with a very limited or non-severe risk…

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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