Low End Severe Risk for Tuesday… Monday Night Thoughts… 10pm #alwx @wvua23
February 6, 2017 Leave a comment
Good Monday evening! We’re carefully watching trends ahead of a developing storm system. There are no issues across our area tonight, and I don’t expect any problems through early Tuesday morning. Above is a threat area for an isolated storm or two becoming severe, with a risk of isolated wind damage, hail and a stray, spin-up tornado. The risk area includes all of west and central Alabama between 11am and 7pm…
Models continue to show the severe weather parameters mismatched somewhat, which will limit this risk from becoming anything significant. You need a good combination of uplift, wind shear and instability to produce a severe weather risk across Alabama. The best wind shear will be moving north of Alabama by Tuesday afternoon, with the best instability over south Alabama.
Below is a look at the RPM, a computer model simulated radar. According to this and other high-resolution models, a batch of strong to perhaps a severe storm moving into extreme west Alabama around 10am to 11am, then shifting east through the early afternoon. The time-stamp below is at 11am Tuesday.
Below is a time-stamp at 2pm off the RPM. Again, this is simulated radar or what radar could look like during the early afternoon. A batch of intense storms, a few of which could be strong to isolated severe.
Storms should be east of our area and into Georgia by 7pm Tuesday evening, with only a few lingering showers over central Alabama during the evening and overnight hours Tuesday night.
Keep in mind, we go live non-stop on TV on WVUA during tornado warnings. You can go to wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click on Live severe weather stream to watch from your computer or smart phone. We will also facebook live severe weather coverage. Just look for WVUA23 on facebook!
For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist