Mild Days Continue… Severe Risks Possible Ahead… Monday Forecast Update 5:30pm #alwx @wvua23
January 16, 2017 Leave a comment
Good Monday afternoon! Our local weather has been very mild again this afternoon, with most of central and west Alabama reaching the lower to middle 70s for highs. Skies have remained mostly cloudy, evident of moisture and uplift across the southeast. We’ll continue to deal with the fetch of tropical moisture northward into Alabama over the next several days.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s tonight, under a mostly cloudy sky. A few isolated showers are possible tonight, especially northwest of I-59. A few showers will remain possible generally near and northwest of I-59 on Tuesday, but I do not expect an all day rain and some areas will not get rain. Highs will reach the middle 70s on Tuesday, with lower 70s for highs on Wednesday.
A vigorous shortwave trough will dig across the southern Mississippi River Valley, sparking the development of a surface low and widespread showers and storms. Storms will become numerous sometime Thursday evening or Thursday night. With a little surface based instability, wind shear and uplift ahead of the front, we’ll have to keep an eye on anything becoming strong to severe. Models hint at widespread rain developing ahead of the storms, which could limit a risk of anything becoming severe. As we get closer to Thursday, I’ll update you on the threats.
Friday and most of Saturday will feature mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. A few showers are possible both Friday and Saturday, but a soaking widespread rain is not expected.
By Saturday night, a very intense, negatively tilted shortwave trough digs across the southern Mississippi River Valley, sparking a rapidly deepening surface low over Arkansas. Gulf moisture will be pulled northward into central Alabama, with a strong low level jet developing, moisture and instability will be pulled rapidly northward into central Alabama. Fuel for storms, as well as strong uplift, cold air aloft, and strong wind shear could lead to a healthy severe weather threat across portions of central and west Alabama sometime Saturday night into the day on Sunday. The key in making or breaking this from becoming a severe weather threat will be whether or not coastal storms will rob the inflow of unstable air deep into Alabama. Like our last event, it’s possible storms near the coast prevent a risk in our part of Alabama. Given we’re 5 to 6 days out, anything could easily change, and it is important to keep checking back with us for updates as we get closer. Hopefully, model data will become more set on storms to the south to prevent a risk here!
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist