Watching Friday – Saturday AM Close… Quick Tuesday AM Thoughts #alwx @wvua23

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Good Tuesday morning! By now, the news has spread about the potential for a winter storm across some portion of north or central Alabama sometime Friday or Friday night into early Saturday. I’m always amazed by the power of social media when looking ahead into events like this. Rumors often go wild when someone posts a model image showing aggressive snow amounts. Unfortunately, forecasting these things are not as simple as looking at an app on your phone or seeing an image of a model someone posted. Forecasting winter weather in the deep south is incredibly complicated, however, confidence on this event is increasing. Please understand, the map above is a very general area where wintry weather is possible. We’ll be able to narrow down accumulations and a zone of where wintry weather is more likely as we get closer. The threat could easily shift north or southward with time.

Here’s the latest… A deep upper air trough will dig across the central and eastern US, sending cold air south. We’ll start to notice the cold air on Wednesday, as the first surge of chilly air reaches us. Meanwhile, an upper air disturbance will swing around the base of the trough providing uplift and sparking the development of a surface low in the northern Gulf on Friday. The surface low will help to spread moisture northward into central Alabama. A surface high to our north will pump colder air into Alabama at the same time.

Rain should break out over south Mississippi and south Alabama sometime during the day Friday or into Friday night. As the rain spreads northward into the cold air, there will be a transition zone develop of a wintry mix somewhere across central Alabama, with the potential of all snow to the north of the wintry mix zone. Models indicate at the potential of accumulating snow somewhere across north or central Alabama Friday evening into early Saturday. Unfortunately, depicting that transition line this far out will be tough, so I highlighted most of west and central Alabama in the possible winter storm area. This will change as we get closer and as forecast confidence increases. Keep checking back with us as we get closer to the event for more details on possible accumulations and where the snow will fall and where the rain will fall.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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