Strong to Severe Storms Possible Today… Monday Update – 7:40am #alwx @wvua23
January 2, 2017 Leave a comment
Good Monday morning! At 7:40am, there is a batch of intense storms slowly moving northeast across portions of west and central Alabama. Generally lined up from Aliceville to Montgomery. These storms are producing an intense amount of lightning and could produce hail due to the really cold air aloft. Fortunately, these are elevated storms, so there is no tornado risk this morning. The elevated storms will gradually spread northeast to include other portions of central and even north Alabama by mid to late morning.
By noon, storms may become surface based for areas generally south of I-20, then all of central and west Alabama between noon and 10pm. With increasing wind shear and plenty of uplift over our area, storms could become severe with a tornado risk. Our highres models agree that storms may become widespread through this morning, causing surface based instability to struggle to increase. If limited surface based instability, the tornado risk would remain low. However, this is a very fluid situation. Understand, if surface based instability is allowed to increase today, the tornado risk would increase. I am also concerned today about storms producing large hail and damaging wind, as you don’t need surface based instability for that, and temperatures above the surface will be very cold. Also, winds just above the surface will be strong, so it will be easy for storms to transfer that to the surface.
The risk of severe weather should end from west to east after 10pm this evening, with all areas out of the severe weather risk by midnight.
Be alert today and into early tonight, as the risk continues for our area. If we get a tornado warning, you can join us live on TV, or you could go to wvua23.com, find the weather tab and click live severe weather coverage option.
For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist