Thoughts on Monday’s Severe Weather Risk… 2:40pm Sunday Update #alwx @wvua23
January 1, 2017 Leave a comment
Good Sunday early afternoon and Happy New Year! Above is a simulated radar off the 4km NAM, valid Monday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of west and south Alabama under an enhanced severe weather risk and the rest of north and east Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather for Monday afternoon and evening. There are 2 distinct scenarios possible for this event. One that would include some rain and storms with little to no severe weather issues and one that would include a risk of severe storms in our area.
Scenario 1: A cluster of storms forms on the coast Monday morning and robs the inflow of unstable air from spreading northward into the state. The model image above indicates this as a distinct possibility. Given the uplift near the coast on Monday, there is a good chance storms form and remain near the coast for most of the day on Monday. If this indeed happens, and I think there is a fair chance it does, there would be some rain and thunder occasionally across central and west Alabama with a very low end risk of an isolated severe storm. The tornado risk would be greatly reduced if correct.
Scenario 2: Storms move away from the coast early Monday morning and warm and moist air spreads well inland into central Alabama ahead of strong uplift moving in from the west. With a high level of instability and a nearly textbook windshear needed for rotating storms, this would include a fairly elevated severe weather risk for our area including tornadoes, damaging winds and hail. Fortunately, most of our high-resolution model data indicates this will not happen, as coastal storms could block the needed instability for a severe weather risk.
Unfortunately, coastal storms like this are incredible difficult to predict and anything is possible. It may be early tomorrow morning before we know for sure if the severe weather risk will be a no show or whether the coastal storms will move out of the way in time to allow an enhanced severe risk to occur. Keep checking back with us for updates as this event unfolds. Again, confidence is fairly high that coastal storms will limit the risk of severe weather in our local area, but it’s still enough of a possibility to put you on alert.
For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist