4PM Monday Severe Weather/Forecast Update… #alwx @wvua23

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At 4pm, a line of severe storms, producing damaging winds continues to progress east across Mississippi. The line itself will reach far west Alabama around 6pm, then progress east to impact areas like Cullman, Jasper, Tuscaloosa and Demopolis between 7pm and 10pm. Areas east of Birmingham will deal with the line after 11pm tonight. Storms could produce damaging winds in spots anywhere across west and central Alabama, and there is a low end risk of an isolated tornado generally south of Tuscaloosa. Surface based instability will be lacking with the 1st round, so widespread severe weather is unlikely. Rain will be heavy with the line, with amounts between 1 to 2 inches.

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Round 2: Keep in mind, most of the day Tuesday will be dry and Mild. This will be a night-time event… A second and vigorous shorwave trough will help to kick off storms sometime after 6pm Tuesday across west Alabama. Given the amount of instability, wind shear and uplift involved, I expect the Tuesday night event to be more dangerous. Storms will be capable of producing hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Most of west and central Alabama is under a “slight” risk from the Storm Prediction Center. I wouldn’t be surprised if that risk is bumped up a category, as some of the paraemters are really impressive for a late November event. The storms may start out as supercells over west Alabama Tuesday evening, then merge into a QLCS, aka, Squall Line late Tuesday night. The highest risk of severe weather over west Alabama will begin after 6pm and end around sunrise Wednesday morning. In areas east of I-65, your main risk of strong to severe storms will arrive after 11pm Tuesday night and end around 10am Wednesday morning.

Both rounds of storms will dump a lot of rain in our area, with 2 to 4 inches expected area-wide.

Forecast turns cooler Wednesday night. Highs will approach 60 on Thursday and Friday. Our next rain event looks to arrive late in the weekend, but we should be on the north side of this low, so I don’t expect severe weather at this time. That being said, if the surface low moves further north, that thought may change.

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Keep in mind, we go live non-stop on TV on WVUA during tornado warnings. You can go to wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click on Live severe weather stream to watch from your computer or smart phone.

For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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