1pm Monday Update… Storms Approaching… #alwx @wvua23
November 28, 2016 Leave a comment
We’re watching storms become strong to severe to the west of Alabama. There is a ton of rain west of the state and that is something we desperately need. Unfortunately, there is also a risk of strong to severe storms with the event this eve/tonight and again Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Thoughts haven’t changed on how this event should unfold…
At 1pm Monday, a strong south wind contiues to pump moisture northward into central Alabama. This will add fuel to the approaching system. A very deep trough digging across the central US will send 2 shortwave troughs around the base of the main longwave one. Both will provide sufficient uplift to kick off storms. That along with instability and very strong wind shear will set the stage for isolated to scattered severe weather issues in 2 parts.
Today: Very windy conditions will develop today, with a south wind gusting to 30mph at times. Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers. I do not expect severe weather before 5pm today.
Above is the convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for today & tonight.
Round 1 Tonight: Dangerous severe storms will break out west of the state this afternoon, with hail, damaging winds and tornadoes all possible over much of Mississippi. As the storms move into west Alabama, it will be in the form of a QLCS or essentially a long squall line. The line will be capable of producing damaging wind and isolated tornaodes, with the best chance of severe issues occuring near and south of I-20. Expect the line of storms to reach the west AL state line sometime around 5pm to 6pm, then slowly track east through the overnight. Storms will gradually weaken once they pass east of I-65, where this is a lower risk of strong to severe storms. Storms should end in west Alabama by midnight, then ending in east Alabama before sunrise Tuesday morning. The storm prediction center has placed west Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather, with a marginal risk in areas east of I-65. Don’t let the word “slight” be misleading. It’s a category from marginal to high in terms of the amount of severe weather expected. Basically, marginal risk would include a lower number of severe weather reports vs a high risk would involve a large number of severe weather reports.
Above is the convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Round 2: A second and vigorous shorwave trough will help to kick off storms sometime after 6pm Tuesday across west Alabama. Given the amount of instability, wind shear and uplift involved, I expect the Tuesday night event to be more dangerous. Storms will be capable of producing hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Most of west and central Alabama is under a “slight” risk from the Storm Prediction Center. I wouldn’t be surprised if that risk is bumped up a category, as some of the paraemters are really impressive for a late November event. The storms may start out as supercells over west Alabama, then merge into a QLCS, aka, Squall Line late Tuesday night. The highest risk of severe weather over west Alabama will begin after 6pm and end around sunrise Wednesday morning. In areas east of I-65, your main risk of strong to severe storms will arrive after 11pm Tuesday night and end around 10am Wednesday morning.
Both rounds of storms will dump a lot of rain in our area, with 2 to 4 inches expected area-wide.
Keep in mind, we go live non-stop on TV on WVUA during tornado warnings. You can go to wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click on Live severe weather stream to watch from your computer or smart phone.
For more updates, go to the weather blog at wvua23.com, scroll to the weather tab and click weather blog. Updates are also on our Facebook and Twitter page. My twitter is @RichardWVUA23 and facebook is WVUA23RichardScott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist