Big Rains Coming! Some Intense Storms Possible… Sunday Midday Update – 11am #alwx @wvua23

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Good Sunday morning! All of our forecast model data continues to shows an incredible rain event for our entire state over the next few days. This looks like a huge drought relief and will help lakes and rivers at record low pool recharge. The event will come in two parts. One wave of rain and storms will move into west Alabama Monday evening or Monday night. The second wave is due in here Tuesday evening and into Tuesday night.

Wave 1: A line of strong to severe storms will track across Mississippi during the afternoon hours, some of which may produce damaging wind, large hail and a few tornadoes. As the storms move into a slightly more stable airmass over Alabama, storms will be weakening. The severe risk over Alabama Monday night is rather low, but not impossible… I expect an intense line as it reaches west Alabama after 5pm Monday. Gusty winds are a good possibility along the line, with a very low chance of an isolated tornado. The storms will be weakening as they track east into central and east Alabama, however, the storms will continue to dump a good bit of rain. Storms will end from west to east before sunrise Tuesday morning. Rain amounts with the first round will range from 1 to 2 inches.

Wave 2: A warm front will back northward, sending unstable air into central Alabama. Storms will rapidly develop over Mississippi, then move into west Alabama during the evening hours on Tuesday. Given the wind shear and unstable air moving into central Alabama, we need to forecast a risk of strong to severe storms. While the intensity of the storms is still in question, we will need to keep a close eye on the northward movement of instability. In this case, the more instability, the better the chance of storms becoming severe. Risks include hail, strong gusty wind (some damaging wind possible) and isolated tornadoes. At the moment, the best chance of isolated tornadoes will occur south of I-20, but everyone needs to be on alert incase of sudden changes. Storms will end from west to east during the early morning hours Wednesday. Rain amounts with the second round will approach 1 to 2 inches, giving a storm event total of 2 to 4 inches.

Keep checking back with us for updates as the event gets closer…

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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