Some Thursday PM Storms…. Cooler Air Soon… Wednesday Forecast Update – 4:15pm #alwx @wvua23
October 19, 2016 Leave a comment
Good Wednesday afternoon! It was another record breaking temperature day across Alabama, with most airports across the state reporting highs at or above the record value for this date. Fortunately, we only have one more hot day before temperatures take a nice dip to end the week and start the weekend.
The upper air ridge across the deep south is in the process of weakening quickly, as a sharp trough axis digs into the eastern US. The trough will send a cold front into west Alabama Thursday afternoon, with a broken band of showers and storms just ahead of the cold front. Given some surface based instability and decent uplift working into the area, the heavier downpours will likely produce thunder, but severe weather is unlikely. The broken line of showers and storms with the associated cold front will quickly move from west to east across the state, so rain amounts will be limited. Most spots across west and central Alabama will get around 0.25″ in the rain gauge, with isolated higher totals where the heavier downpours occur. Rain amounts will likely remain less than 0.25″ south of I-59 with this event. The rain we are expecting is by no means a drought reliever, but atleast some areas will get enough rain to settle the dust some. The batch of showers and storms will enter west Alabama during the mid to late afternoon hours, then end in our east Alabama counties after midnight Thursday night.
Much cooler air will take over Friday, with a breezy north wind. Highs will struggle to reach 70 degrees, despite a return of sunny skies. Overnight lows will dip into the lower 40s Friday night and Saturday night. Highs will remain in the lower 70s on Saturday, but a slow warming trend is expected to end the weekend and start out next week, as the trough begins to move out and the cool airmass over the south moderates. Based off the latest model data, it appears unlikely that our area will receive any additional rain through the middle of next week.
In the tropics, a new system developing east of the Bahamas may become a tropical storm in the next few days. This system will not impact the US, as it’s swept out to sea ahead of our next trough.
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist