Hurricane Matthew & Tropical Storm Nicole Update… Tuesday Update 10am #alwx @wvua23

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Good Tuesday morning! Tropical Storm Nicole has formed this morning to the east northeast of Hurricane Matthew. Nicole has winds at 50mph but this one will not impact land in it’s slow path.

Hurricane Matthew has slammed Haiti this morning, as a powerful category 4 hurricane. Winds were at 145mph at landfall, but the hurricane crossed a small peninsula of Haiti and is now back over water. This has prevented any significant weakening, so Matthew remains a very powerful category 4 hurricane. Extreme east Cuba will be significantly impacted today and tonight, then the Bahamas will deal with a devastating blow from the powerful hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday. The storm is expected to be a category 4 as it passes through the Bahamas this week. Matthew will come very close to east Florida on Thursday, and Hurricane watches have been issued for some coastal sections.

By Friday night, Matthew is still expected to remain at major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). By that point, the center of the storm should be just off the northeast Florida coast, but if the track shifts any further west, the core of the storm may be on the Florida coast. Even if the core of the storm remains just east of the coast, dangerous conditions will extend west into Florida.

On Saturday, the core of the hurricane should come very close to or make landfall near the South Carolina and North Carolina boarder. If the storm is still a major hurricane and makes an official landfall, it will be the first time a category 3 or higher storm has made a US landfall since 2005, which is a record length of time between major hurricane US landfalls. Even if the center remains just offshore, very dangerous conditions will occur along the coastal areas of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

On Sunday, the NHC track suggests the storm could still be a hurricane just east of the New Jersey coastline, moving northeast. Below is the track and information from the NHC.

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HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

The eye of Hurricane Matthew was quite distinct when it made
landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti at 1100 UTC this morning,
but since that time the eye has become obscured on conventional
imagery. A reconnaissance plane measured SFMR winds of 118 kt
earlier today, but the entire area has not been sampled yet by the
plane. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt in
this advisory. Some slight weakening could occur today while Matthew
interacts with the high terrain of Cuba and Haiti, but the
environment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4
status for the next 2 days. Some weakening is anticipated by the
end of the forecast period due to an increase of the wind shear.

Radar fixes from Cuba and satellite data indicate that Matthew is
moving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 9 kt. The hurricane
is being steered by the flow around the western edge of a
subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge
westward, and this pattern should force the hurricane to turn
toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the waters just east
of Florida. Beyond 3 days, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward
allowing Matthew to turn northward and then northeastward.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will
extend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a
strong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast
United States from days 2 through 5.
KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches have been issued
for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum,
very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of
the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 18.9N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 22.0N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 25.6N 77.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 29.5N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 34.0N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH…INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

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3 Responses to Hurricane Matthew & Tropical Storm Nicole Update… Tuesday Update 10am #alwx @wvua23

  1. I’d be curious (unlike President GEorge dubya Bush) to know whether/weather anyone at the National Hurricane Center has considered the possibility of Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole converging and possibly causing a ‘Perfect Storm’ in the South Atlantic rather than the one that occurred in the North Atlantic?

    Just askin’

    Well, actually, I’m George Clooney’s agent and I want him to get the jump on this opportunity for a boffo sequel.

  2. WVUA Weather says:

    That would be wild for sure! Matthew has a strong upper air high over the top of it, which creates wind shear and sinking air on the outskirts of the storm itself. If Nicole tried to get close to Matthew, the dominant storm would win out and shear the other one apart. In-fact, Nicole is fighting lots of wind shear and dry air right now due to it’s close proximity to Matthew. The Perfect Storm Record should remain in tact. 🙂

  3. Thanks, guys!

    With your assurance and the recent turn of Matthew, I now feel very comfortable in continuing my sail south from Maine in my uninsured old Pearson on the ‘outside’ instead of the ICW.

    Looking forward to seeing you guys, in a couple of weeks in Stewart, eh?

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