Hot for Now… Cooler This Weekend… Tropial Update – 4:15pm Tuesday #alwx @wvua23

7 Day -SHELTON STATE Forecast - Offset Lows - PM.png

Good Tuesday afternoon! Our local weather is pretty quiet this afternoon, as high pressure continues in control. Most areas managed to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, which is very warm for early October. Fortunately, the hot weather we’re currently dealing with will only last for a few more days before a cooling trend takes over this weekend.

Expect temperatures to fall into the middle 60s overnight, which is a bit warmer than recent nights. Highs will return into the upper 80s on Wednesday and Thursday, with middle 80s for highs on Friday. Skies remain mostly sunny, with only a few puffy cumulus clouds occasionally.

A strong cold front will pass through Alabama on Saturday, and conditions will get rather breezy behind the front. Given the forecasted position of Hurricane Matthew at the time of the cold front arrival, rain is not expected with the front. In-fact, our local area will remain dry for the next 5 days. We’ll be well west of Hurricane Matthew, meaning we’ll be on the dry side of the storm. Sinking air on the west side of Matthew will prevent rain here.

Here’s the latest track from Hurricane Matthew. Winds at 4pm are sustained at 140mph, making it a category 4 hurricane. Matthew will track right across the Bahamas beginning late tonight and continuing northwest, impacting the northwest Bahamas on Thursday. Hurricane Warnings are now up for the islands. A hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the east coast of Florida, as the storm is expected to brush the state on it’s northward track. It is possible that landfall occurs in Florida, as models continue to shift west a tad. Anyone along the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina coast need to watch this one very close! It has been 11 years since the last major hurricane has hit the US. Unfortunately, this storm may end that long, record-breaking streak…

Tropical Close Up VIS Storm NHC Track.png

Here’s the discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

The eye of Hurricane Matthew is not as distinct as it was earlier
today, and the change in the overall pattern suggests that the
cyclone is a little weaker due to the interaction with the nearby
high terrain. The initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt and
some slight additional weakening could occur tonight while Matthew’s
circulation continues to interact with Cuba and Hispaniola. Once
Matthew moves into the Bahamas, the environment is favorable for the
hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some
weakening is anticipated beyond 3 days due to an increase of the
wind shear.

Earlier reconnaissance aircraft fixes, satellite and radar data from
Cuba indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees
at about 8 kt.  The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow
around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global
models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the
hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the
waters just east of Florida. The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the
southward extension of the hurricane watch in Florida. Beyond 3
days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to
turn northward and then northeastward.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
government officials in those countries.

2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this
far in advance.  For example, only a small deviation of the track to
the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep
all of the hurricane-force winds offshore.  It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United
States to clarify.

3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South
Carolina, and North Carolina  later this week or this weekend, even
if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to
specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the
remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north.  At a
minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely
along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 19.8N  74.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  05/0600Z 21.1N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  05/1800Z 22.5N  75.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  06/0600Z 24.0N  76.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  06/1800Z 25.9N  78.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
72H  07/1800Z 29.5N  80.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  08/1800Z 33.5N  78.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 40.0N  71.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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