Rather Hot Afternoons for Now… Cooler Air This Weekend… Tropical Update – Monday Update .. 4:30pm #alwx @wvua23

7 Day -SHELTON STATE Forecast - Offset Lows - PM.png

Good Monday afternoon! Our local weather has turned out rather hot this afternoon, with most areas reaching the middle to upper 80s, under a sunny sky. Fortunately, there is a light northeast breeze and the air is very dry. Expect a rapid drop in temperatures this evening, as the dry air cools into the middle 60s by 10pm and lower 60s by midnight.

An upper air ridge builds into the area Tuesday and remains over our area through Thursday. That will send daytime temperatures into the upper 80s to near 90. With very little moisture in place, conditions will be hot but heat index will not be a factor. Overnight lows will dip into the lower to middle 60s each night through Friday night.

By Saturday, a cold front will pass through Alabama, bringing a breezy northwest wind and cooler temperatures. We’ll approach 80 Saturday afternoon under a mostly sunny sky. Highs will drop into the middle 0s on Sunday and Monday, with upper 40s becoming possible Sunday night!

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At 4pm, models have made a big shift westward with the track of Major Hurricane Matthew. Above is the very latest track from the National Hurricane Center, which suggest that Matthew could get very close to if not impact portions of Florida and the Carolinas. If the track shifts any further west, then we could be looking at a major hurricane landfall in the US, which hasn’t occurred since 2005. If the center of the storm remains out to sea, that would greatly reduce the impacts along the coastal areas from Florida to North Carolina. The Bahamas will deal with a hurricane disaster, as the major hurricane will track right through the entire Bahama chain. If a US impact were to occur, it would begin on Thursday morning and continue through Saturday night, as the storm moves basically near the coast, paralleling the coastline of the southeast US.

Here’s the latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center:”

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

Matthew’s structure has not changed much today. The most recent Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found peak SFMR winds of 124
kt on their last pass through the northeastern eyewall, and a peak
flight-level wind of 118 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity is held at 120 kt for this advisory. The central
pressure has been steady around 940 mb for much of the day.
Matthew’s satellite presentation remains impressive, with a 15 n mi
wide eye surrounded by convective tops of -80C or colder and
excellent outflow, especially poleward. Little change in intensity
is expected during the next couple of days, with the exception of
some possible weakening due to land interaction with Haiti and
eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in intensity due
to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. While Matthew is
expected to be a little weaker once it moves into the Bahamas as the
shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat content decreases a
little, it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through the
next 5 days, as shown by the global models. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to or a little above the latest intensity
consensus through 4 days and is closest to the GFDL model at day 5.

Matthew is now moving a little to the east of due north, or 010/06.
The short term track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the
hurricane will move generally northward for the next 24 to 36 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The
new NHC track forecast during this time has been nudged eastward
toward the latest multi-model consensus aids, and continues to show
the core of the dangerous hurricane moving near or over the
southwestern peninsula of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern
Cuba on Tuesday.

At 48 hours and beyond, the GFS has trended sharply westward, and
now is in agreement with the UKMET and ECMWF in showing the western
extent of the Atlantic subtropical ridge nosing north of Matthew
across the Carolinas in 3-4 days. This results in Matthew taking a
more northwesterly track across the Bahamas, and closer to the
Florida peninsula during this time. The UKMET is farthest west,
with a track over the east coast of Florida and into South Carolina
in 4-5 days. The GFS, ECMWF, and the GFDL model are a little
farther east and remain close to but offshore of Florida. The GFDL
and GFS are close to southeastern North Carolina by day 5, while the
ECMWF is slower. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend. While there
remains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long
range, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast has
increased.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous
beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east
coast later this week and weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 16.3N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.4N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.0N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 22.8N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 78.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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