Hurricane Matthew Now a Category Three This Morning…Tropics Update 10:15 a.m
September 30, 2016 Leave a comment
Matthew has continued to intensify this morning. An Air ForceReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a peak SFMR wind of 99 kt and a 700-mb wind of 103 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 100 kt for this advisory. The aircraft reported that the central pressure had fallen to 968 mb, and also observed a 16 mile wide eye that is open to the southwest. Water vapor imagery shows a well-established poleward outflow channel, with outflow also expanding in the southwest quadrant.This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly shear of around 20 knots. The SHIPS model output shows this shear continuing for the next 36 hours or so, and as a result, the SHIPS and LGEM models show Matthew weakening during this time. This weakening trend is also shown by the HWRF and COAMPS-TC hurricane models. However, a decrease in intensity given that the environment around the cyclone does not appear to change much. Some short-term fluctuations in intensity are certainly possible, but the official forecast remains above much of the guidance in the short range and keeps the intensity at 100 kt through 72 hours. Some weakening is shown by days 4 and 5 due to potential land interaction. Late in the period the NHC forecast is closest to the HWRF model.
-National Hurricane Center
Models are still agreeing with a sharp northward turn in the coming hours; however, there is still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to exactly how close Matthew will come to a U.S impact. Right now, best model guidance show Matthew making it close enough to the U.S that even without a direct impact, effects from this hurricane will still be observed for those on the east coast.
WVUA 23 News