Nice Fall Days Ahead… Tropical Update – Tuesday Forecast Discussion 4:10pm #alwx @wvua23
September 27, 2016 Leave a comment
Good Tuesday afternoon! Today is the first of many nice days ahead, as drier and cooler air slowly works southward into the state. While today is somewhat cooler and drier than recent days, we’ll get a secondary surge of cooler and drier air Wednesday night. A deep upper level low and associated trough axis will deepen across the eastern US, allowing for the cooler numbers to make it further south.
Expect temperatures to drop into the upper 60s by 10pm and upper 50s before sunrise. Skies will remain clear overnight with a light to calm wind. We’ll warm into the middle 80s on Wednesday, but the air will be very dry. Given the dry air, conditions will not feel all that hot. As the trough sharpens up and a increasing north wind develops Wednesday night into Thursday, expect the airmass to cool a good bit on Thursday and Friday. Highs will only reach the upper 70s, with lows in the lower 50s. A few spots across north Alabama may drop into the upper 40s Thursday night and Friday night.
The weekend will be beautiful, with a very slow warming trend by Sunday and into Monday of next week. The University of Alabama homecoming parade and game will include fantastic fall conditions.
In the tropics, we’re watching a large are of low pressure develop to the east of the Lesser Antilles, moving west. There’s a very high chance this becomes a tropical storm at any time, likely tonight or on Wednesday. By late week or the weekend, there’s a real chance this could become a hurricane in the Caribbean. Below is the current satellite and model plots on this storm. Some models bend it north into the Bahamas in 5 to 7 days, while other models continue the storm westward, into the Jamaica area. Will the storm turn north and out to sea by catching the trough, or miss the trough and move into the US coastline? Given we’re likely more than 7 days out before any sort of US impact, it is way too early to speculate, especially given the high amounts of uncertainty. We’ll continue to nail down a path as we get a little closer, so keep checking back with us for updates.
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist