10am Thursday Update on Hermine… #alwx @wvua23

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Good Thursday morning! Tropical Storm Hermine is nearing hurricane status, as the storm moves north northeast towards the Florida Coastline. Hermine will make landfall, likely as a category 1 hurricane late tonight somewhere between Apalachicola and the Florida big bend. A hurricane Warning extends from Panama City and east through the entire big bend region.  A tropical storm warning goes as far west as Destin and as far east as Tampa. There are also tropical storm warnings for coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. Keep in mind, wind is typically not a huge deal with a strong tropical storm to a weak category 1 hurricane. Sure, there will be some downed trees and powerlines, but the main impacts will be flooding across Florida, southern Georgia and the Carolinas.

As for our local weather, we won’t have much of an impact at all. Models suggest a few showers drifting across the state, with a light east or northeast breeze this evening, with a breeze becoming north on Friday.

See the image below, valid for midnight tonight. This high resolution model suggests landfall will occur just after midnight at Apalachicola, with a category 1 hurricane. Notice Alabama’s Gulf Coast is well west of the main rain. I don’t expect much of a rain/wind impact from areas west of Destin, with the main impacts expected near Destin and points east, especially east of Panama City this afternoon through very early Friday morning.

However, waves and rip currents will be dangerous along the Alabama, Mississippi and Florida Gulf Coast as the Labor Day weekend begins. Please use caution on the beaches until the rip currents settle down. All of the rain and wind issues across the eastern Gulf coast will end by Friday afternoon. If you’re going to the beach this weekend, the only issues after noon Friday will be rip currents. Even that will settle down as the weekend progresses.

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Here’s the full 10am discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

Hermine is gradually becoming better organized, with convective
banding developing over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.
Upper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the northwest of
the storm by a cyclonic shear axis depicted by water vapor
imagery. The current intensity is set at 55 kt in agreement with
SFMR-observed surface winds from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft. The intensity forecast continues to show Hermine becoming
a hurricane before landfall which is in general agreement with the
numerical guidance. The global models show Hermine embedded within
a frontal zone by 48 hours, so the forecast shows the system
becoming extratropical at that time. There is some concern about
the evolution of the post-tropical cyclone later in the forecast
period, since the shear starts decreasing after 72 hours. This
could allow the system to reacquire some tropical characteristics in
4-5 days, although it is not certain how close to the coast the
cyclone will be by that time.

Based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft fixes and a dropsonde from the
NASA Global Hawk aircraft, the initial motion is estimated to be
030/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric trough should steer the system
north-northeastward to northeastward for the next couple of days.
Later in the forecast period, a developing mid-level cutoff low near
the northeast United States coast will cause a slowing of the
forward speed as the cyclone interacts with the low. The official
forecast track is essentially a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions, with the former model showing a track closer to the
northeast coast and the latter taking the system farther offshore.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track.
Hermine is a rather asymmetric storm, with a large extent of
dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains
well to the east and southeast of the path of the center.

2. Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a
frontal system when it reaches the Carolinas over the weekend. It
is a little early to say what the specific impacts will be for the
mid-Atlantic and northeastern states.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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