Detailed Tropical Update – 8am Tuesday #alwx @wvua23

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Good Tuesday morning! At 8am, we still have a tropical depression in the southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, moving west. There has been a huge blow up of convection around the center, which is signs of organization. We should get information later this morning from the National Hurricane Center on whether this has gained tropical storm status. If storms persist around the center today, strengthening will continue. Fortunately, there is some dry air just west of the circulation, which should prevent rapid development.

Below is a look at the 12z model plots on TD # 9. Most models bring this storm inland between Destin and Tampa as a strong tropical storm. Wind shouldn’t be a big deal with this system, however, flooding over Florida could be major. Some areas could get over 10 inches of rain this week in Florida. The only impacts across central Alabama will be a nice north or northeast breeze, helping to pull down drier air.

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Below is the official track from the National Hurricane Center. The storm will make landfall, likely in the big bend of Florida as a strong tropical storm Thursday afternoon, then quickly move northeast into the Atlantic by the holiday weekend. If you have a beach trip planned, conditions should improve in Florida by Friday. Surf will be rather rough all along the northern and eastern Gulf Coast Wednesday through Friday, then relax a bit over the weekend. Here’s the latest update from the National Hurricane Center:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 86.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward motion is expected today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression will continue to move slowly away from western Cuba,
and move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on dropsonde data from the NASA Global Hawk aircraft.

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We have several other tropical systems in the Atlantic basin we’re watching close. See the image below… Tropical Depression # 8, soon to become a tropical storm is nearing the outer banks of North Carolina, with gusty wind and heavy rain. This storm will turn sharp back to the northeast on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the outer banks of North Carolina.

Hurricane Gaston is slowly weakening across the central Atlantic, with winds down to 100 mph. Gaston will maintain hurricane status through Friday before weakening to a tropical storm, as it moves into the north Atlantic. Gaston will impact the Azores over the weekend with rain and tropical storm winds.

Finally, a tropical wave just coming off the African coast will likely become our next tropical storm or possibly a hurricane in the next 5 days, as it moves into warm waters this week and this upcoming weekend. We’ll watch this one carefully, as it has a chance to get close to the US in about a week to 10 days. This system could still turn out to sea, but we’ll carefully watch it.

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Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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