Hot Days Continue… Very Active Tropics… Monday Update – 4:30pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Monday afternoon! Our local weather remains hot this afternoon, with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Most areas are in the lower to middle 90s, with a heat index over 100. Make sure you stay well hydrated this afternoon and each afternoon through Wednesday, as the combination of heat and humidity will be dangerous. There is a small chance of an isolated afternoon storm or two, but the risk of any one spot getting rain is at 10% to 20%. Overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s through mid to late week.

The upper air ridge will quickly break down by mid to late week, allowing the heat and humidity to decrease some. I expect conditions to get a little breezy on Thursday and maybe on Friday, as tropical depression # 9, what should be a tropical storm by that point, passes to our south. The pressure gradient between that system and a surface high to our north will allow for a north breeze around 10 to 15mph. The breeze will help to transport lower dewpoints in from the north and that will feel nice! At this point, I do not expect any issues in Alabama from Tropical Depression # 9.

So, lets get into the tropics… Below are maps and tracks of the 3 developed tropical systems we’re watching.

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First, here’s an update from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Gaston. This storm will remain out to sea and not impact the US. Below is the discussion on that storm.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK:

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 55.2 West. Gaston is moving
toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  The hurricane is
expected to move generally to the northeast or east-northeast at an
increasing forward speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

——————————————————————

Tropical Depression # 8 has formed in the far west Atlantic between Bermuda and North Carolina. This should become a tropical storm soon and will brush the outer banks of North Carolina late Tuesday, then the system will hook right and move out to sea. Here’s the discussion on that storm:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK:

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 74.0 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  This
general motion with a slower forward speed is expected later
this evening, with a gradual turn toward the north forecast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be
near the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early
Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


And finally, Tropical Depression # 9. This system is just west of Key West Florida, moving in a west or west northwest direction. TD 9 will become a tropical storm some time tonight or Tuesday, as it moves into the Central Gulf of Mexico. Models indicate this storm will approach the northern Gulf coast, then turn northeast ahead of an advancing trough. This will keep Alabama on the dry side of the system. The chances of this becoming a hurricane is low, but tropical storm conditions will be likely on Thursday over much of north and central Florida. Discussion below:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.8 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h)
and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday night
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center will continue to move away from western
Cuba, and move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next
48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


Below is a map of satellite and radar, as well as the current conditions on Tropical Depression # 9.

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Below is the individual model plots on Tropical Depression 9, which mostly show a northern Florida or Florida Panhandle landfall. Most likely, landfall will occur somewhere between Destin and Tampa. We’ll be able to narrow that window down as we get closer to Thursday. A direct impact on Alabama’s Gulf Coast is unlikely at this time, however, surf will increase a good bit by Wednesday and Thursday.

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Here’s a zoomed in look at the track at landfall on Thursday. The National Hurricane Center has this as a strong tropical storm, moving into the big bend of Florida Thursday afternoon. Wind shouldn’t be a big deal with this storm, but we’ll keep an eye on any sudden changes. Keep checking back with us for updates.

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Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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