Tropics Are Very Active… Sunday Update – 10am #alwx @wvua23

Good Sunday morning! As of 10am Sunday morning, we have lots of action developing in the tropics. An area we’ve been watching for the past day or two between Bermuda and the Carolinas has developed into a tropical depression. This is not the tropical wave 99L, we’ve been watching over a week. The new tropical depression is approaching the east coast of the US, but should turn back out to sea just before reaching North Carolina on Tuesday of next week. Models suggest this will become a tropical storm soon, but reaching hurricane status is unlikely. If you live in North Carolina, keep an eye on this system incase it moves closer to the coast.

Below is a track and discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

144332W5_NL_sm.gif

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 70.0 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A
west-northwestward motion is expected later today and tonight,
followed by a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward
speed on Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone
will pass offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening in possible in the next couple of days, and the
depression could become a tropical storm on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA
buoy 41048 is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Hurricane Gaston is becoming better organized, as it remains in the open Atlantic. This system will remain at hurricane status over the next 5 days, as it turns northeast. Here’s the track and discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

144703W5_NL_sm

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 54.8 West.  Gaston is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A slow
northwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a slow
northward or northeastward motion Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible during
the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

And, finally, invest 99L… The storm that has been talked about for days. This system will move into the southeastern Gulf of mexico tonight and may become a tropical storm on Monday or Tuesday, as it moves into a slightly more favorable environment. At this time, it is unlikely that it affects central Alabama, however, we’ll keep an eye on it. Most models develop this into a weak tropical storm, and cut the storm to the northeast over Florida. If anything changes in the path and intensity, I’ll let you know. Below is an update from the National Hurricane Center:

Untitled.png
1. A weak area of low pressure located near the north coast of central
Cuba continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness
and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not conducive for
significant development today while this system moves westward
through the Straits of Florida. The low is expected to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions could become somewhat more conducive for development.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Cuba
through tonight. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will spread
into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later today.
Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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