Afternoon Tropics Update…99L upgraded to Tropical Depression NINE …#alwx @wvua23

The tropics continue to be a source of significant activity today, and a good bit has changed in the past 24 hours. Invest 99L (seen above) has been found to have a closed center of low pressure, and thus has been upgraded to a tropical depression. Tropical Depression NINE (TD 9) will enter the warm waters of the gulf where more development of this system is likely.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast is that TD 9 will continue to organize into a tropical storm as it enters the gulf, and swing right back into the Florida coast. However, this is a HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST, meaning this forecast could change over the next day or two. Those with interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor this system closely.

Most of what has caused the upgrade of 99L to TD 9 is the hurricane hunters recon flight has shown a closed low pressure center north of Cuba. However, 1 minute maximum sustained winds remained just below tropical storm strength.

Models are still struggling with the track and intensity of 99L, but it is clear that the system will track through the Gulf of Mexico and will be a threat to land somewhere along the gulf coast.

Most of the models keep this system as either a tropical storm or weak hurricane, but until the system becomes more organized, track and intensity forecasting will be difficult at best. At this time, it is still a situation that needs to be closely monitored by those with interests along the Gulf Coast.

 

Key Points: 

1. Invest 99L has organized into Tropical Depression Nine.
2. Tropical Depression Nine will continue to track into the Gulf of Mexico
3. The most likely track of this storm is back into Florida
4. This is a high uncertainty forecast, and could significantly change over next 72 hours. 
5. Everyone with interests along the US Gulf Coast should closely monitor this system

 

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Alex Puckett

WVUA23 Weekend Weather Anchor

@puckettwx