Heat and Humidity Continue…Tropical Update…Saturday Forecast #alwx @wvua23

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Hot and humid weather will remain on tap for west Alabama this week, with temperatures topping out in the mid 90s each day, and lows falling to the mid to lower 70s. Heat index values will be at or above 100 for most of west and central Alabama through at least the workweek. Rain chances will remain low over the next several days, but a stray shower or storm during the afternoon and early evening can’t be ruled out this week.

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Tropical Storm Gaston contiunes to track out to the open sea this evening, and won’t have any impact on land in the foreseeable future. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is also tracking a weak and highly sheared low off the coast of Texas and Louisiana. This won’t develop into a tropical storm, but will likely bring tropical downpours to parts of Texas and Louisiana that recently flooded. Another are of interest is off the coast of the Carolinas. This system is disorganized, and is highly sheared due to its proximity to an upper-level low. Development of this system in the short term is unlikely.  A tropical wave located between Cuba and South Florida, Invest 99L, continues to struggle due to less than ideal conditions for development. This system is being sheared by strong northwesterly winds (wind shear is good for development of severe thunderstorms, but bad for development of tropical storms). This shear is pushing the bulk 0f the convection associated with this wave southeast towards a severely decoupled mid-level center. Most of the past 2 days this system’s low level center has been exposed with little to no convection near or on it. Now as we head towards the evening, a new batch of convection appears to be firing near the low level center, but this system will struggle to organize for at least the next 48 hours.

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Long term, the fate of 99L is still pretty murky. It is in a pretty inhospitable environment right now, and it is so unorganized any significant development would take a good bit of time. Most forecast models do put this system in the gulf where conditions for development are a bit more favorable.At this time, it appears the system will struggle to develop even in hospitable conditions for development based on its current condition, but it still needs to be monitored by those with interests along the gulf coast. Long story short: Right now it is mostly good news in term of this system’s current strength and potential later on, but we cant completely rule out some later strengthening in the warm gulf waters. The NHC has continued to downgrade this storm’s potential for development in the gulf, but still gives it a 40% chance of development into at least a tropical depression within the next 5 days.  We will continue to monitor it closely here in the WVUA23 Weather Center and keep you up to date on any further tropical development.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Alex Puckett

WVUA23 Weekend Weather Anchor

Twitter: @puckettwx

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