Hot Days Ahead… Watching Tropics… Thursday Forecast Update – 4pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Thursday afternoon! If you have been outdoors today, it is obvious that summer is still here! Temperatures reached the lower to middle 90s across the state, with a heat index of 100 to 104. A few random, tiny summer storms have popped up over the state, but most areas remain dry. Expect temperatures to drop into the 80s by sunset, then middle 70s late tonight, under a mostly clear sky.

Friday through the weekend will include hot, hazy and humid conditions, as an upper air ridge remains overhead. The ridge will continue to keep most communities dry through Sunday, but I can’t rule out a quick shower or storm somewhere across the state.

Early next week, the main core of the ridge will move off to the east, but our local weather will remain hot and mostly dry. There is still the risk of a stray afternoon and evening storm, but most areas will not get rain. The forecast by mid-week highly depends on whether a low develops in the Gulf and moves out direction. There are still many, many questions on this very weak and disorganized tropical wave.

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Speaking of the tropics… Tropical Storm Gaston is moving northwest across the central Atlantic and will not impact land, as the storm gradually turns north, then northeast in the northern Atlantic.

The tropical wave known as Invest 99L remains very disorganized due to wind shear and dry air removing any convection from the center. There’s a fair chance this system never becomes a tropical storm or hurricane. While the chance “0” for this to come into the Gulf and develop into something tropical, the chance is not very high at the moment. I’m amazed by the power of social media. About a week ago, one run of one computer model showed a major hurricane impacting the Alabama Gulf Coast. I have not seen that look since then. Someone shared it on social media, and I have been asked over and over about a ghost hurricane in the Gulf. Please understand, if there is a real threat to Alabama’s coast and something you should be concerned about, I will saturate social media with updates, as well as on television. However, above is the latest 18z computer model tracks of what could still become a tropical storm over the next few days. Most models now take the feature into the Gulf, and we will need to keep an eye on development. This is about 5 to 7 days away, if it actually develops and if it actually comes in our direction. There’s just not enough evidence at this time to start a panic.

The bottom line… keep checking back with me for updates. I will post any changes on the blog, social media and discuss on television. The good thing about tropical systems is you know they are coming atleast a few days in advance.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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