Rather Hot Days Ahead… Few Storms Possible… Tropical Update – Monday Forecast Update – 4:35pm #alwx @wvua23

Good Monday afternoon! As a weak disturbance moves across west Alabama this afternoon, we’ve noted a good coverage of scattered showers and storms on radar. As of 4:30pm, storms are gradually fading, as we lost the afternoon heating, plus the air over east Alabama is dry and not supportive of rain at this time. Showers and storms have remained over west Alabama only today. Expect some patchy fog overnight, with a low in the lower 70s. A weak surface front has stalled south of I-20, and that boundary will serve as the focus of a few pop up showers and storms each afternoon through Wednesday.

Tuesday and Wednesday will include a couple of rather hot days. We will reach a high in the lower 90s, with a chance of isolated to scattered afternoon storms. The best chance of these pop up storms will occur near or south of I-20. The boundary washes out by Thursday through Sunday, as we’ll return into a drier pattern. I can’t rule out an isolated shower or storm during the afternoon hours, but the risk of any one spot getting rain is low. Highs will remain in the lower to middle 90s through the weekend.

We have newly formed Tropical Depression # 7 in the east Atlantic. This system will likely become a hurricane by mid-week, as it tracks northwest. Here’s an update from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016

The low pressure area located west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient
organized convection to be considered a tropical depression.
Microwave imagery suggests that the system is likely still
consolidating, with two or more vorticity centers rotating around
a mean center.  The initial intensity is set to 30 kt in agreement
with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 275/16.  The cyclone is on the south side of
a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic, and as a result it
should move generally west-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours.
Beyond that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward
toward a weakness in the ridge over the central Atlantic.  The
track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the
forecast track lies near the consensus models.

The depression is currently in an environment of light to moderate
easterly vertical shear.  This, combined with warm sea surface
temperatures, should allow strengthening. One possible negative
factor, however, is a tongue of African dust/dry air wrapping
around the west side of the circulation.  On that basis that the
dry air will not stop development, the intensity forecast calls for
steady strengthening through 72 hours.  After that time, arrested
development is likely due to the cyclone encountering moderate to
strong westerly vertical shear.

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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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