Scattered Storms Likely… Watching Tropics… Friday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Friday afternoon! We have had a good number of scattered to numerous storms again today across the state, as we continue in a favorable upper air pattern for storms. A weak surface front will move across Alabama this weekend, only helping to aid in the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms. The best chance of storms through the weekend will occur between noon and 10pm, however, a few overnight or morning storms are possible as well.

By Monday through Wednesday, the front slips south of central Alabama greatly reducing the risk of storms. I am watching the end of next week, as some models back the front northward, allowing scattered storms to return. I only have a 30% risk of that on Thursday and Friday, as confidence in the number of storms remains low. Models are not very bullish on the idea of widespread rain at this time.

Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling this afternoon, with wind shear and dry air around the circulation. Winds have decreased to 40mph, with a west northwest movement at 10mph. Fiona will likely die out over the next few days.

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The next tropical wave in the central Atlantic really has my interest, as it’s in more of a southern track. Models are beginning to converge on the idea of this system maintaining a west direction, rather than turning north next week. Most models now take this system into the Caribbean, which is problematic, considering climatology of storms in that area. It is too early to know how strong this system will become or where it will end up over the coming days, but we’ll carefully watch it. Based off the forecasted upper air pattern in about 10 days, it’s a system to keep an eye on. Most tropical models develop this wave into a tropical storm this weekend or early next week, with a few models ramping it up to hurricane status in the next 4 to 5 days.

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Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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