Earl Now Expected to Become a Hurricane… 10pm Tuesday Update #alwx @wvua23

Tropical Close Up Loop Storm NHC Track.png

Here’s an update on Tropical Storm Earl… Winds are at 60mph, with a west movement at 16mph. Earl will continue to become better organized before landfall Wednesday night in Belize. Here’s the update from the NHC…

1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
Earl several hours ago indicated that the central pressure had
fallen to 996 mb or even lower.  Therefore the intensity was
increased to 50 kt.  Some higher surface wind speeds were reported
from the aircraft’s SFMR instrument, but these are believed to have
been rain-inflated. The storm is gradually becoming better
organized, with some developing banding features seen on satellite
images. With low shear and SSTs approaching 30 C along the projected
track, additional strengthening is likely and the NHC forecast calls
for Earl to become a hurricane prior to landfall.  This is in close
agreement with the latest SHIPS guidance and only slightly above
the model consensus.  Weakening will occur after the cyclone makes
landfall over Yucatan, and the amount of restrengthening in 2-3
days is highly dependent on how far Earl moves into the southern Bay
of Campeche.

Based on aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion is
estimated to be 280/14 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package.  A large
and nearly stationary mid-tropospheric high pressure system
centered over the southern Great Plains should prevent the tropical
cyclone from moving significantly northward.  The official forecast
track is close to the model consensus for the first 48 hours and is
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF tracks thereafter, with the former
model’s track to the north of the latter one.  This is fairly
similar to the previous NHC forecast.

The new intensity forecast has necessitated the issuance of a
hurricane warning for the coast of Belize and a portion of the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.


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