Bonnie is Back! Tropical Update… 3:50pm #alwx @wvua23

Tropical Track Close 3.png

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

Coastal observations, Doppler radar data, and reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Bonnie is a
little stronger than on the previous advisory, and the Stepped
Frequency Microwave Radiometer instrument on the aircraft has
estimated surface winds as high as 39 kt.  However, these estimates
are uncertain due to rain contamination and bathemetry issues.
Based on other data, the initial intensity is increased to a
possibly conservative 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 050/5.  There is little change in the
track forecast philosophy since the last advisory.  Bonnie continues
to move along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and
the cyclone should move generally east-northeastward to eastward
with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of
days.  The track forecast follows the various consensus models,
which remain tightly clustered.

The center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters for
the next 12 hours or so while the vertical wind shear is light.
Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during
that time, bringing Bonnie back to a tropical storm.  After that,
increasing shear and sea surface temperatures below 24C should cause
Bonnie to again degenerate to a remnant low, with the system
weakening to a trough in the westerlies by 96 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 35.4N  74.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  03/0600Z 35.8N  73.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  03/1800Z 36.3N  70.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  04/0600Z 36.5N  67.7W   30 KT  35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  04/1800Z 36.5N  63.9W   30 KT  35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  05/1800Z 36.0N  55.5W   25 KT  30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  06/1800Z…DISSIPATED

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