Forecast Changes for Friday… 9pm Radar Thursday Update – #alwx @wvua23

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Good evening! Based off the latest model data and the current setup, I feel confident that an MCS or cluster of organized thunderstorms will track along the central Gulf Coast late tonight through Friday morning. Above is a radar as of 9pm Thursday night. The MCS is located over the central Louisiana Gulf Coast and tracking east. Models often have a really hard time with these things, so this is a very tricky forecast ahead of us.

The latest data suggest the MCS will become nearly stationary along the Alabama and Mississippi Gulf Coast Friday morning, causing flooding near the gulf Coast. If this indeed occurs, it will greatly reduce the amount of unstable air advecting into central Alabama or basically block the inflow for storms in our part of the state. This would greatly reduce the amount of rain across central Alabama, but our local area would still get some rain. Totals would more than likely remain less than 1/2 an inch in this scenario, with some spots less than 1/4th of an inch. Expect the first wave of some light to moderate rain between 4am and 10am Friday morning, followed by a few scattered showers and storms during the afternoon.

I will say this… the scenario above is not set in stone. If the MCS dies out and warm, unstable air is able to flow into central Alabama, we would still end up with a healthy rain event on Friday. Either way, it will not rain all day. This forecast is highly dependent on whether or not there’s a large cluster of storms on the coast, south of our area. Above are the two scenarios, so plan your day around both possibilities.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Storms on Friday… Thursday Forecast Update – 4pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Thursday afternoon! Our local weather has turned out mild and sunny this afternoon, as drier air takes over the state. This dry trend will be very short lived, as a deep upper air trough will swing across the southeast on Friday. Moisture will increase overnight, and you’ll notice clouds returning to the area. Expect lows to dip into the middle to upper 60s tonight, due to an increase in moisture. There could be a few showers in the pre-dawn hours Friday morning, but the better rain chance comes after 5am.

A weak surface low will move right across central Alabama on Friday, brining a soaking rain with it. Expect rain amounts to approach 1 inch in some areas, but I do not expect rain to fall all day. There will be breaks in the rain. Models are hinting at a large coastal complex of storms on Friday, which could limit the amount of heavy rain north and central Alabama receives. If that indeed develops, some areas will less than 1 inch of rain on Friday. Look for a good chance of morning rain and storms, followed by a few afternoon scattered storms. The risk of severe weather appears low at this time, however, we’ll watch radar trends carefully.

Drier air slips into central Alabama on Saturday, with an increase in sunshine. Highs will reach the lower 80s along and south of I-20, with upper 70s to the north of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. Expect temperatures to fall into the upper 50s Saturday night and Sunday night. We’ll continue under a sunny sky on Friday, as a weak surface high drifts near the area.

Monday through Wednesday of next week will feature more of a summer-like routine, with highs reaching the middle to upper 80s. Lows will gradually warm each night, as moisture slowly increases. There could be a few isolated showers or storms Tuesday through Thursday, but rain chances appear low at this time.

The tropics remain quiet…

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott