May 19, 2016 Leave a comment
Good evening! Based off the latest model data and the current setup, I feel confident that an MCS or cluster of organized thunderstorms will track along the central Gulf Coast late tonight through Friday morning. Above is a radar as of 9pm Thursday night. The MCS is located over the central Louisiana Gulf Coast and tracking east. Models often have a really hard time with these things, so this is a very tricky forecast ahead of us.
The latest data suggest the MCS will become nearly stationary along the Alabama and Mississippi Gulf Coast Friday morning, causing flooding near the gulf Coast. If this indeed occurs, it will greatly reduce the amount of unstable air advecting into central Alabama or basically block the inflow for storms in our part of the state. This would greatly reduce the amount of rain across central Alabama, but our local area would still get some rain. Totals would more than likely remain less than 1/2 an inch in this scenario, with some spots less than 1/4th of an inch. Expect the first wave of some light to moderate rain between 4am and 10am Friday morning, followed by a few scattered showers and storms during the afternoon.
I will say this… the scenario above is not set in stone. If the MCS dies out and warm, unstable air is able to flow into central Alabama, we would still end up with a healthy rain event on Friday. Either way, it will not rain all day. This forecast is highly dependent on whether or not there’s a large cluster of storms on the coast, south of our area. Above are the two scenarios, so plan your day around both possibilities.
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist