Mild Days… Isolated Storms… High Rain Chance Friday… Monday Forecast Update – 4pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Monday afternoon! Temperatures remain below normal today, as clouds continue to thicken across the state. Clouds are helping to keep temperatures down a bit, plus, the residual cooler airmass from the weekend is still impacting our local weather. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy tonight, with temperatures dropping into the upper 60s by 9pm, then lower 60s before sunrise.

With a cluster of storms tracking along the Gulf Coast Tuesday into early Wednesday, models continue to keep most of the rain well south of our area. If model data is correct and there’s a mass of rain hugging the coast, that will greatly limit our rain chance on Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence is high enough in this scenario to keep our local rain chance only at 20 to 30% Tuesday through Thursday. Highs will approach the lower 80s each afternoon, with lows in the 60s.

Our next disturbance will allow a weak surface low to develop and move just to our north. This should pull a large area of showers and storms over the state on Friday, with some storms producing heavy amounts of rain. Flash flooding is not expected at this time on Friday, but we’ll watch trends carefully. Rain amounts on Friday will reach 1 to 2 inches, with a few higher spots mixed in.

Drier air will take over again by next weekend, however, we’ll need to keep an eye on Saturday incase this system slows down its exit.

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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott