Severe Storms This EVE & Tonight… Tuesday Update – 8am #alwx @wvua23

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Good Tuesday morning! We’re about to get into an active severe weather event, so I wanted to post some quick notes on what’s going on.

First, the map above is the 7am outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. This map highlights the risk areas and categories. SPC has placed a moderate risk of severe storms (red shaded area) for the southern half of Alabama, including cities to the south of Tuscaloosa and Clanton. An enhanced risk (orange shaded area) has been shifted further north and now includes Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Anniston. North Alabama, north of Fayette and Jasper and Anniston are in the slight risk (yellow shaded area).

Please don’t focus on the lines and exactly who is in a moderate or who is in the enhanced or who is in the slight. It doesn’t matter. Everyone is in a severe weather risk. You can have a tornado in a slight risk. It only takes one… Just because the probability is lower in the slight risk and higher in the moderate risk doesn’t mean you should let your guard down. Unfortunately, I can’t tell you a tornado is going to hit or not hit your house right now. We don’t know that until storms are on radar and we’re tracking out the path of the tornadoes. Just know… there is a risk of severe weather, including tornadoes this evening and tonight.

What to expect: A very deep surface low will move across northwest Mississippi, pulling in deep tropical moisture and instability into an environment with incredible amounts of uplift and wind shear. This setup favors supercell thunderstorms this evening and into the overnight hours, and individual supercells stand a greater chance of producing tornadoes, hail and damaging wind. This will be a fast event, as a dry line will race across the state from southwest to northeast, bringing an end to the threat. Some tornadoes that develop could be strong and cause significant damage. The higher chance of a few strong tornadoes will be in areas to the south of I-20. Damaging winds of 70mph area possible within some of these storms, as well as large hail of quarter to golf ball size. Given these storms will be scattered supercells, you may not have any problems at all, if the storms happen to dodge your local area. Unfortunately, if you area directly impacted by a supercell, you could have big problems.

What time: West Alabama, areas west of I-65 will be impacted in the 4pm to midnight time-frame tonight. Areas east of I-65 will be impacted in the 9pm to 2am time-frame. Keep in mind, severe weather will not last that long at your house. That’s simply the window of time where you could have a severe storm in your area. Basically, when you need to be the most alert.

Be alert! I can’t stress how important it is to realize there is a risk. Have a plan of action incase you area issued under a tornado warning. Remember, if a tornado warning is issued for your area, you’ll need to get in the lowest floor of your home and into an interior room or closet. A basement or storm shelter is the best bet. Do not be in a mobile home tonight, go stay with a friend or family member if needed. Avoid being in a car during a tornado warning. Finally, don’t panic! Have a plan ready and you’ll be fine if you need to act on that plan.

We will be on TV on WVUA non-stop during tornado warnings for all of west, central and east Alabama in the Birmingham TV market area. We can be heard live on Moody Radio 88.9fm in the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham area, 89.5fm in the Selma area, 91.9fm in the Dixons Mills area if you lose power.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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