Severe Storms Late Tuesday… Cooler Air Ahead… Monday Forecast Update – 4:15pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Monday afternoon! It has been a wet day across Alabama, with rain continuing to fall this afternoon pretty much across our entire area. Rain will continue over the next few hours, gradually lessening in coverage as we approach midnight tonight. A few showers will remain possible through tomorrow morning, but we’ll catch a quick break in the widespread moderate to heavy rain.

At 3:30pm, after looking at all of our current data, not much has changed for what we expect Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. There’s no doubt, there is a substantial risk of severe weather across west and central Alabama. The only question is the amount of instability. If there is little to no surface based instability in our area, the risk of severe weather will be greatly reduced, however, models continue to depict enough instability to cause issues, especially south of HWY 80. I’m really concerned for south Alabama, as there could be a few strong tornadoes in that part of the state. Please understand, everyone is in a risk of severe storms tomorrow evening and tomorrow night, but the highest potential for severe storms will increase the further into south Alabama you go.

What to expect: Supercell storms will develop and move into the state Tuesday evening and quickly move out late Tuesday night. These storms could produce damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail. The best chance of tornadoes will be over the southern half of Alabama, but a few isolated tornadoes are possible as far north as Hamilton and Cullman. A few tormadoes could be strong over portions of central and south Alabama. Depending on how high instability actually gets will determine how significant the risk is. We need instability to be lower than expected to prevent major issues.

What time: The severe risk will begin in extreme west Alabama generally after 4pm Tuesday, then push out of west Alabama, east of I-65 around 1am Wednesday morning. East Alabama, east of I-65 will deal with the risk generally after 8pm. The storms will then move into Georgia by 3am Wednesday morning.

We will be on TV on WVUA non-stop during tornado warnings for all of west, central and east Alabama in the Birmingham TV market area. We can be heard live on Moody Radio 88.9fm if they lose power.

After the severe risk ends late Tuesday night, cooler air will take over. Highs will drop back into the 50s on Wednesday through Friday, with lows in the 30s Wednesday night through Friday night. Expect a slow warming trend over the weekend.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott


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