Severe Weather Thoughts for Tuesday… Monday Update – 9:20pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Monday evening! As our new forecast data comes in, I’ve made some slight changes to the time-line, but the general severe weather risks has not changed. Our new high resolution model data continues to suggest a few supercells could develop over west Alabama, west of I-65 during the mid to late afternoon, generally after 3pm. The best chance of severe weather will occur in the orange shaded areas, including cities of Livingston, Eutaw, Tuscaloosa, Reform, Jasper, Cullman, Fayette and Hamilton. To the east of the cities listed, there is a slight risk of severe storms (yellow shaded area), but I still expect the chance of a few spin-up tornadoes, some damaging wind gusts and small hail in the slight risk area. The slight risk includes areas near Linden, Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Talladega, Anniston and Gadsden. Storms will gradually weaken as they push east during the late night hours across Alabama.

What time/what threats: A few scattered supercell type storms are possible over west Alabama after 3pm Tuesday afternoon. Since these will be isolated or scattered, not everyone in west Alabama will be impacted during the afternoon. If supercells can actually develop, they stand the best chance of producing a tornado, hail and a damaging wind gust. A line of storms will then develop over east Mississippi and push into west Alabama after 6pm. The line will slowly push east of I-65 around the midnight hour. The storms will push into Georgia before sunrise Wednesday morning. The main risks from the line of storms will be damaging wind gusts, but a few isolated spin-up tornadoes are possible as well, mainly in west Alabama.

Heavier storms may also produce flash flooding, so turn around if you drive into a flooded area. Be cautious if you live in a typical flash flood spot…

What could prevent severe weather issues: If instability is lower than expected, the risk of severe weather will greatly decrease. If temperatures between 5,000ft and 18,000ft are not cold enough, our risk of severe weather would decrease. Unfortunately, these are things we won’t really know until tomorrow… The temperatures between 5,000ft and 18,000ft being too warm prevented our area from dealing with severe weather back on December 23rd. I hope that limiting factor can happen again!

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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