Severe Weather Thoughts for Tuesday… Monday Update – 9:20pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Monday evening! As our new forecast data comes in, I’ve made some slight changes to the time-line, but the general severe weather risks has not changed. Our new high resolution model data continues to suggest a few supercells could develop over west Alabama, west of I-65 during the mid to late afternoon, generally after 3pm. The best chance of severe weather will occur in the orange shaded areas, including cities of Livingston, Eutaw, Tuscaloosa, Reform, Jasper, Cullman, Fayette and Hamilton. To the east of the cities listed, there is a slight risk of severe storms (yellow shaded area), but I still expect the chance of a few spin-up tornadoes, some damaging wind gusts and small hail in the slight risk area. The slight risk includes areas near Linden, Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Talladega, Anniston and Gadsden. Storms will gradually weaken as they push east during the late night hours across Alabama.

What time/what threats: A few scattered supercell type storms are possible over west Alabama after 3pm Tuesday afternoon. Since these will be isolated or scattered, not everyone in west Alabama will be impacted during the afternoon. If supercells can actually develop, they stand the best chance of producing a tornado, hail and a damaging wind gust. A line of storms will then develop over east Mississippi and push into west Alabama after 6pm. The line will slowly push east of I-65 around the midnight hour. The storms will push into Georgia before sunrise Wednesday morning. The main risks from the line of storms will be damaging wind gusts, but a few isolated spin-up tornadoes are possible as well, mainly in west Alabama.

Heavier storms may also produce flash flooding, so turn around if you drive into a flooded area. Be cautious if you live in a typical flash flood spot…

What could prevent severe weather issues: If instability is lower than expected, the risk of severe weather will greatly decrease. If temperatures between 5,000ft and 18,000ft are not cold enough, our risk of severe weather would decrease. Unfortunately, these are things we won’t really know until tomorrow… The temperatures between 5,000ft and 18,000ft being too warm prevented our area from dealing with severe weather back on December 23rd. I hope that limiting factor can happen again!

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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Very Warm… Severe Storms Tuesday Eve/Night… Monday Forecast Update – 4:30pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Monday afternoon! We are feeling very warm temperatures this afternoon across Alabama, with most areas reporting temperatures in the middle 70s. Conditions feel great this afternoon, but the warm and humid air is not a good thing ahead of an approaching very dynamic storm system. If you have plans outside this evening, tonight or the first half of Tuesday, there are no weather issues. We will continue to experience warm and humid conditions, with a small chance of a passing light shower. Temperatures will dip into the lower 60s overnight tonight.

The changes come Tuesday evening and Tuesday night, as a cold front slowly dips southeast into the state. The map below shows a general time line for your area and where the highest risk of severe storms will occur.

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The system is currently over the southwestern US and will be moving into the central Plains later this evening and tonight. As a deep surface low develops over the central Plains on Tuesday, you will notice a gusty south wind developing. The south wind will be key to transport higher amounts of instability into the state. Even if you walk outside today, you will notice that moisture and heat is already increasing.

Tuesday afternoon, severe storms will develop across central Mississippi, then moving into northwest Alabama sometime around or just after 4pm. A squall line will very slowly track from west to east across the state Tuesday evening and into Tuesday night. The line itself will be capable of producing a few damaging wind gusts and a few spin-up tornadoes. The highest chance of severe weather will be in areas around Livingston, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Reform, Cullman, Jasper, Hamilton and Vernon and all areas points to the northwest. That area is on my map in an orange shade across a good chunk of west and northwest Alabama. As the line tracks east during the overnight hours, instability will be decreasing and the best upper air support for severe storms will begin to move out of the area. After midnight, the risk of severe weather will be shifting into east Alabama, east of I-65. In this zone, I’ve got a yellow shade. That’s where there is a low risk of isolated severe storms, but the chance is much lower compared to far west and northwest Alabama. I still want you to be on alert incase a random severe storm along the line approaches your area.

Another concern is flash flooding. The best chance of flash flooding will be over west and north Alabama, where storms will track east very slowly. This could cause heavy rain to fall over a period of a few hours, resulting in some flash flooding. Not everyone will have issues with that, but I want you to be alert if you live in a typical flood spot.

If we get a tornado warning, you can join us on WVUA for live, non-stop coverage.

Temperatures will get a bit cooler behind this system on Wednesday and Thursday, as highs dip back into the 50s…

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

Severe Storms Possible Tuesday Eve/Night… Monday Update – 9am #alwx @wvua23

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Good Monday morning! We continue to watch the risk of strong to severe storms Tuesday evening and Tuesday night, as a very dynamic storm system passes to our northwest and a cold front moves across Alabama. The system is currently over the southwestern US and will be moving into the central Plains later this evening and tonight. As a deep surface low develops over the central Plains on Tuesday, you will notice a gusty south wind developing. The south wind will be key to transport higher amounts of instability into the state. Even if you walk outside today, you will notice that moisture and heat is already increasing.

Tuesday afternoon, severe storms will develop across central Mississippi, then moving into northwest Alabama sometime around or just after 4pm. A squall line will very slowly track from west to east across the state Tuesday evening and into Tuesday night. The line itself will be capable of producing a few damaging wind gusts and a few spin-up tornadoes. The highest chance of severe weather will be in areas around Livingston, Tuscaloosa, Fayette, Reform, Cullman, Jasper, Hamilton and Vernon and all areas points to the northwest. That area is on my map in an orange shade across a good chunk of west and northwest Alabama. As the line tracks east during the overnight hours, instability will be decreasing and the best upper air support for severe storms will begin to move out of the area. After midnight, the risk of severe weather will be shifting into east Alabama, east of I-65. In this zone, I’ve got a yellow shade. That’s where there is a low risk of isolated severe storms, but the chance is much lower compared to far west and northwest Alabama. I still want you to be on alert incase a random severe storm along the line approaches your area.

Another concern is flash flooding. The best chance of flash flooding will be over west and north Alabama, where storms will track east very slowly. This could cause heavy rain to fall over a period of a few hours, resulting in some flash flooding. Not everyone will have issues with that, but I want you to be alert if you live in a typical flood spot.

If we get a tornado warning, you can join us on WVUA for live, non-stop coverage.

Join us live on WVUA23 weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott