Storms By Early Wed AM…Colder Weekend… Tuesday Forecast Update – 4:45pm #alwx @wvua23

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Good Tuesday afternoon! Winds are really picking up, as a strong surface high to our northeast and a strong surface low to our northwest squeeze the pressure difference across our are. What we call pressure gradient winds will continue to increase tonight, with gusts to 35mph. We will remain dry this evening and for most of tonight before some really heavy rain moves in just before or around sunrise Wednesday morning.

Models continue to indicate the best instability for severe weather will be near the Gulf coast, but given the severe weather parameters in place during this event Wednesday morning, and just a little instability near and south of HWY 80, I’ve added a very low end risk of an isolated tornado or damaging wind gust for areas in the image below in red. Understand, this is a very low risk, given very low surface based instability. However, the amount of lift and wind shear over our area, it won’t take much instability to cause issues. All models keep the surface based instability well south of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Anniston, but if you live near Livingston, Demopolis and Selma, be weather alert between 3am and 10am Wednesday morning. To the north of those areas, I expect heavy rain and thunder, but severe weather is unlikely.

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Rain totals with this event will easily reach 1-3″, with the higher amounts over the west side of the state, and gradually decreasing in east Alabama. Flooding isn’t a major risk, but some of the low spots could deal with flooding within the heavier rain axis.

Temperatures will be turning cooler on Wednesday, as a cold front tracks across the area; in-fact, most areas will be in the 50s by mid afternoon. Expect lows in the 40s Wednesday night, with a decrease in clouds. Thursday and Friday will feature lots of sun, with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s.

Much cooler air will take over this weekend, with temperatures dipping to near or just below freezing Saturday night and Sunday night. We’ll struggle to reach the low 50s for highs on Sunday.

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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
rscott@wvua23.com
Twitter: RichardWVUA23
Facebook: WVUA23RichardScott

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