Possible Tropical Formation in Bay of Campeche… No U.S. Impact Expected – Tuesday Update 4pm #alwx

tropics

The image above is a map from the National Hurricane Center. The potential tropical system is headed east instead of north, so it will stay out of our area. Most forecasts do not predict strong development, so it should not become a major storm, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft did find a small well-defined low in the southern Bay of Campeche. However, the thunderstorms associated with the low are still not organized enough for this system to be considered a tropical cyclone. Upper-level winds could become more conducive for further development by tomorrow, and this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the week, tropical cyclone formation appears unlikely due to interaction with a cold front while the system is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Campeche and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued with short notice.

sattrop

The satellite image above shows where the storm is now. You can see the storm developing just west of the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is not very well organized at this time, but it should slowly get a little better organized over the next day or two as it moves east.

Source: The National Hurricane Center

Caitlin Golden

WVUA Weather Intern

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