Scattered Storms… Mostly Dry Weekend… Watching Tropics.. Thursday Forecast Update – 2:45pm #alwx

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Good Thursday afternoon! It’s another hot summer day across Alabama, with temperatures reaching the lower 90s once again. A few spotty storms have developed on radar this afternoon, and a few scattered storms will continue possible through this evening and tonight. If you are going to an outdoor event this evening or tonight, take the rain gear to be safe. The risk of rain is at about 30% this evening. Temperatures tonight will gradually fall into the lower 70s after midnight.

Friday will include a pretty good chance of scattered showers and storms. I do not expect rain all day or night, but hold onto the umbrella through the day. A cold front will slowly track southward across the state, bringing drier air to the northern half of Alabama in time for the weekend. If you live south of I-20, a few scattered showers and storms will remain in the forecast on Saturday and Sunday. Even there, it won’t rain much and some will stay dry. To the north of I-20, I think most spots will remain rain free over the weekend, with highs in the 80s.

Highs school football on Friday night will be questionable, with a decent risk of scattered showers and storms. While some games will go just fine, some will deal with a passing downpour. Take the rain gear to your football game Friday night to be safe! Temperatures will drop into the upper 70s to end the local games at 10pm.

Alabama takes on Southern Miss this weekend, with a 5pm kickoff. Expect a partly cloudy sky during the game, with temperatures slowly falling from the middle 80s at kickoff to the lower 80s at the end of the game. This game will not be near as hot for fans in the stadium like last week. It now looks like the cold front will stall out just south of I-20 over the weekend, which means rain is unlikely for the Bama game…

We’re watching Tropical Depression # 6 in the central Atlantic. This system will become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in about 5 days. The good news… this system will remain well away from land and turn out to sea. Another feature we’re watching is spinning up to the east of Florida. This could become a tropical depression or storm as it moves west. This system will track across south Florida and into the Gulf by the weekend, with the possibility of some development. With a trough over us, it is highly unlikely the circulation would reach central Alabama. Some models bring it close to the Gulf Coast, then hook it right as it hits the trough. If the trough were to be positioned west of the Mississippi river, with a ridge over the Atlantic coast, then I would be more concerned. Either way, lets keep an eye on it…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

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TD # 6 Has Formed in the Central Atlantic… Thursday Update 10am – #alwx

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Tropical Depression # 6 has formed in the central Atlantic. Good news! No risk to land… Here’s a discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

Satellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate that the low pressure area over the eastern Atlantic has a well-defined circulation and organized convective banding near the center.  Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data and the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 310/12.  A low-/mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3-4 days.  After that, the track guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda.  There is a fair amount of spread in the guidance on where this turn should occur, with the extremes being the Canadian model on the east near 45W and the ECMWF model on the west near 55W.  The official forecast lies close to the model consensus in expecting a more northerly motion between 51W-53W.  The forecast track keeps the cyclone well away from land for the next 5 days.

The depression is currently in an environment of light vertical wind shear.  The large-scale models forecast some increase in southerly shear after 24 hours, which should persist through the end of the forecast period.  Despite the shear, the intensity guidance forecasts slow but steady strengthening.  The official forecast follows this scenario and is a blend of the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 5, 6 and 10:00 P.M. and weekends at 10PM for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua