One More Dry Day Tomorrow – Rain Returns Saturday – Thursday Evening Forecast Update 910 PM

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Broad high pressure will hang on for one more day and give us a good supply of sunshine tomorrow after a cold start to the day with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s! An upper-air disturbance over the Deep South Texas Valley is producing some shower activity across that area, but it’s this disturbance that will be our next weather maker.

A fairly strong temperature gradient is already in place across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and as this upper-level energy interacts with this temperature contrast, a surface low pressure center will develop and track to our east across parts of Georgia. Normally, one might expect the rain to miss us to the east; however, this will not be the case. A significant amount of upper-level uplift will overspread the area beginning Saturday and interact with increasing moisture and produce widespread rain.

This rain will begin as early as the mid-morning hours of Saturday and persist for a large part of the day Saturday into Saturday evening. There will be pockets of heavy rain at times, but it’s still a little difficult to exactly pinpoint where the heaviest totals will be. Models continue to disagree on the exact placement of the surface low pressure system, and the track of this feature will be heavily influencing the amount of rain central Alabama receives.

As this system lifts to the northeast, rain will end early Sunday morning from west to east. Subsidence, or sinking air, on the back side of this departing system may allow the sky to temporarily clear out Sunday afternoon before more clouds build in by the evening hours in advance of our next system. This system will not have a lot of moisture to work with, but the degree of uplift will be quite significant. Therefore, I’ve included a small chance of precipitation in the forecast for Monday. Some of the latest guidance suggests the window of opportunity for precipitation comes from 3 PM Monday afternoon through around Midnight. I say ‘precipitation’ because atmospheric profiles would support perhaps a mix of rain and flurries or just flurries. I want to stress that no snow accumulations will materialize, but just be aware of the possibility of a few flakes Monday afternoon or evening.

Behind this system, there is a little bit of disagreement among the prominent forecast models. However, I can say with decent confidence that New Year’s Eve and Day will be dry with near seasonal temperatures. Another system may bring rain chances toward the end of next week, so stay tuned for further details!

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
iwilliams@wvuatv.com
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac

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