Great Weekend Ahead! Thursday Afternoon Forecast Update – 5pm

Sevenday_640

Good Thursday afternoon! Our local weather was hot this afternoon across Alabama, as many areas reached the lower 90s. The humidity dropped a bit yesterday, as some drier air slipped into the area. Dewpoints continue below 70 this afternoon, so there is still a lack of extreme humidity. Temperatures will drop into the 80s around sunset and continue to drop into the lower 80s by 8pm. Expect temperatures to reach the middle 70s at 10pm and upper 60s after midnight.

A cold front is moving our way, and will reach Alabama on Friday. The front will cause the first big taste of fall like weather. We can expect one more hot day on Friday, but a refreshing north breeze will take over during the midday to late afternoon hours. Temperatures will top out around 91, with a small chance of isolated storms along the front. Skies will quickly go clear Friday evening and Friday night. For the local high school football games Friday night, expect some really nice weather. Sunny skies and a light north breeze can be expected at the 7pm kickoff, with temperatures in the lower 80s. Temperatures may reach the upper 60s at 10pm, especially north of I-20. Since the front is coming through during the lunch-time hour, it sure looks like all local high school football games will be dry.

The weekend forecast is looking great, as dry air takes over from the northwest. Highs will top out in the middle 80s both Saturday and Sunday, with a nice north breeze. There is no risk of rain over the weekend, and temperatures at night will fall into the “Cool Range”. Expect temperatures in the upper 50s both Friday night and Saturday night. This will be a quick shot of cooler air, as temperatures will modify on Monday and Tuesday. Highs will approach 90 early next week, with a gradual increase in humidity. Overnight lows will return into the upper 60s to lower 70s as early as Sunday night. There is no organized risk of rain through early next week…

untitled

Here’s a quick look at the tropics:

We’ve got a tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane in the Atlantic. Neither of these systems will impact the US. Hurricane Humberto is in the extreme eastern Atlantic and is tracking north. Tropical Storm Gabrielle is tracking north and will soon turn northeast. While it’s closer to the US, it will not impact the us. Tropical Depression 10 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, but it will not reach the US. TD 10 is moving west to northwest and will make landfall in Mexico sometime over the weekend. While it should become a tropical storm, I don’t think it will become a hurricane…

Warnings_366

If you’re making the trip to College Station, Texas on Saturday for the Bama game, expect hot weather. Kickoff is at 2:30pm, as Alabama takes on Texas A&M. Temperatures will remain in the middle 90s during the entire game. If you’re going to be in the stadium, the sunscreen and water will be much needed.

Auburn takes on Mississippi State University in Auburn on Saturday. Skies will remain mostly clear during the entire game, with temperatures in the lower 80s at the 6pm kickoff and lower 70s to end the game.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Twitter: Richard_wvua

 

Advertisements

Tropical Storm Update – Thursday 4pm

ten

Good Thursday afternoon. The tropics have really come alive here lately, as we have reached the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The map above shows the current tropical set up. Here’s the latest update from the National Hurricane Center:

Humberto

HURRICANE HUMBERTO

DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013.

THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES…AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE. DVORAK-BASED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT YET DECREASED…SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KT. HUMBERTO SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LATER ON…THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE. THUS…THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST HINTS AT SOME RE-STRENGTHENING BY LATE IN PERIOD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE AT DAYS 4-5.

THE NORTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES…AT 350/12 KT. A LARGE MID- TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST- NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THE NEW TRACK GUIDANCE…ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST…ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

Gabreille

This storm is not expected to impact the US main land. Here’s an update of tropical storm Gabrielle from the National Hurricane Center.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE

DISCUSSION NUMBER 18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013

500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

GABRIELLE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS STILL PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. EARLIER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE A FEW 35-KNOT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION…AND THIS VALUE IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME…WEAKENING IS FORECAST…AND GABRIELLE WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

Gulf low

Notice there is a new tropical depression in the gulf, Tropical Depression Ten… Here’s the discussion from the National Weather Center on that:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION

NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

MIAMI FL AL

400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

SATELLITE DATA…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME…A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS…THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF. GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE…IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC…WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Tropical Depression 10 is not expected to impact the US…

WVUA Weather Intern

Laura Carr