Staying Hot and Muggy…Changes on the Way – Saturday Evening Forecast Update 8:20 PM

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Temperatures this afternoon soared into the mid 90s for most locations across west Alabama and when the humidity is factored in, the heat index rose to between 100 and 105 – sweltering! Not much relief this afternoon either as the showers and storms remain generally confined to our south and east today. That’s thanks to the ridge of high pressure that was entrenched over our area earlier in the week finally beginning to retrograde to the west.

I think we’ll have one more day of rather hot and humid conditions tomorrow as that high is holding its own. Still, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop during the peak heating hours, but a lot of places will remain dry and hot. By Monday, however, some changes in the upper-levels of the atmosphere will start to happen. The aforementioned high will finally break down enough and shift far enough to the west to allow for a trough to develop southward across the eastern third of the country.

As we evolve into a northwesterly flow aloft by Monday, I think our overall rain chances will increase. There are a few signals in the model guidance that suggest a few decaying storms may try to work into our area at various times, so it could be hard to pinpoint exact rain chances for Monday and Tuesday. Still, afternoon showers and storms are an increasing possibility Monday afternoon and evening as a frontal boundary approaches from the north.

Some uncertainty comes into the forecast with respect to how this frontal boundary works through the area. The GFS wants to keep the front around in central Alabama through Tuesday, while the NAM and Euro want to shift it to our south, effectively ending our rain chances. I will elect to keep the rain chances in the forecast for Tuesday, but the better coverage should be along and south of I-20. All models agree though that the mid and late week will remain rain-free and slightly cooler than what we are experiencing now thanks to some drier air working in from the north.

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac

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