Warmer Days Ahead… Scattered Storms… Monday Forecast Update – 4:15pm


Good Monday afternoon! After a record breaking weekend, with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal, temperatures have warmed a little more this afternoon. Most areas are dealing with temperatures in the middle 80s, which is still a good 5 degrees below normal. A cool air wedge and upper air trough hanging around the southeast has been responsible for the cooler than normal temperatures; plus, nearby rain has helped to keep many spots cooler. Here’s a look back at the high temperatures since Friday:

Tuscaloosa: 79 on Friday, 79 on Saturday, 77 on Sunday.

Birmingham: 73 on Friday, 70 on Saturday, 75 on Sunday.

The upper air trough is weakening and the wind flow has switched to the south. A south wind is pulling mild and tropical air off the gulf. While the main upper air trough has weakened and moved out, a trough axis remains in place. This trough axis will continue to bring the risk of scattered showers and storms. The best chance of rain will occur during the afternoon hours, but I do not expect a washout. I would highly recommend taking the umbrella to school or work for the next few days. Since storms will become a little more scattered, predicting where and what time it will rain at your house or event is nearly impossible. Rain chances stand at 40% on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The trough axis will lift out on Thursday and Friday, which will reduce our rain chance to the isolated range. A few afternoon storms are possible on Thursday through Saturday, with the risk at 30%. Some areas will get a quick downpour, while other stay dry. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s on Thursday through Saturday.

There is a chance drier air will take over on Sunday and Monday. This would mean lower humidity and lots of sunshine. We will fine-tune the forecast as we get closer.

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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
Twitter: Richard_wvua