Rain Chances Increase by Mid-Week – Sunday Evening Forecast Update 9:20 PM


As expected, the rain coverage today was much less than previous days. The highest moisture content has shifted south and east of our area. An upper level trough of low pressure was beginning to dig southward from the Ohio River Valley toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley today. Some relatively drier air has filtered in thanks to the northwesterly flow at the surface, and consequently, we saw decreased rain chances today and I think that trend will continue into tomorrow and some of Tuesday as well.

By Tuesday afternoon, the upper level trough of low pressure is expected to have become well established along the Mississippi River. Meanwhile, a strong high pressure center over the western Atlantic will be “battling” so to speak. A more southeasterly flow will develop by Tuesday evening into Wednesday, and this will bring in higher moisture content into the area. As a result, we’ll see higher rain chances for the daytime hours of Wednesday, but I think the highest rain chances unfortunately will hold off until the end of the week.

By Independence Day Thursday, the axis of highest moisture should be collocated with the right-rear quadrant of an unseasonably strong jet streak associated with the trough of low pressure in the upper levels. This juxtaposition of this moisture and lift will spell likely/high rain chances for Thursday lasting into Friday. I don’t think it will rain all day both days, but periods of showers and storms will be each day. Given the saturated moisture profiles expected, some localized/isolated flooding issues may arise, but organized flooding is not expected.

By the first part of the weekend, the aforementioned high pressure center will be more ‘winning the battle’ and as a result we will see decreasing rain chances and higher temperatures. Come Sunday, we should see temperatures returning to the low 90s with just an outside chance at a few showers or storms during the afternoon and evening hours.

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac