A Temporary Break in the High Rain Chances – Saturday Evening Forecast Update 9 PM

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The frontal boundary responsible for our bouts of rain and thunderstorms finally pushed south of our viewing area earlier this evening. If you live south of I-20, you may have had a downpour or two in your backyard this afternoon, but the rain showers for our viewing area have diminished. As a result, we’ve had some drier air beginning to filter in behind the front; the dew point temperature has dropped at least 10 degrees from this time last night!

We have a trough of low pressure beginning to carve itself out over the eastern third of the country. Strong high pressure remains over the western Atlantic and another strong high pressure center remains anchored over the 4-corners region. This high pressure has helped places like Death Valley and Las Vegas get well into the 100s – 123 in Death Valley and 114 in Las Vegas! This relatively amplified pattern is actually unusual for this time of the year; usually, the primary storm track / jet stream / is located near the Canadian border. I think we will have a few showers possible tomorrow across northwestern sections of the area, and maybe along the far southern fringes of our area as well. I think some drier air will filter in for the I-20 corridor, thereby decreasing rain chances for that area.

As we head into Monday, I’m expecting mainly the same sort of setup; however, I do think we will have the chance of a stray shower area-wide for Monday, even though the rain chances remain fairly low at 30%. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the trough of the eastern third of the country will actually retrograde, or move westward. This will allow a southwesterly flow to develop aloft, as well as allow a more southerly flow at the surface to advect higher moisture into the area. There remains some discrepancies as to exactly where the highest convergence zones will set up during the mid to late week, but I do think there’s at least a 50% chance of rain and storms each day from Wednesday – Saturday with highs remaining in the mid to upper 80s.

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac