Good Chance of Rain Storms Monday and Tuesday – Sunday Evening Forecast Update 9:05 PM

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As expected, most of the area stayed dry today with just a few hit or miss showers and storms popping up during the late afternoon hours. For now, the radar remains relatively quiet across west Alabama, but heavy storms persist across east Alabama. But, some changes are about to start happening weather wise.

Overall troughiness develops over the eastern half of the country tomorrow, and individual pieces of energy/vorticity will be moving through this trough throughout Monday and Tuesday. What this will mean for our area is periods of showers and storms possible each day, but I don’t think it will be a total washout. A few storms could become strong, but no organized severe weather is expected at this time. Highs each afternoon will stay in check–in the mid to upper 80s.

The forecast confidence for Wednesday remains low as the models are struggling to converge on a solution. The Euro keeps the front around Highway 80, while the GFS pushes it farther south. The WSI 12km RPM model also shows this scenario, but the NAM agrees with the Euro in keeping the front stalled closer to central sections of Alabama. I will use a blend of all of the models for this forecast; higher rain chances should remain south of I-20 for Wednesday, but again I cannot rule out a shower or storm anywhere across the area.

We trend towards average rain chances/temperatures toward week’s end. Highs should be right around 90 degrees with just the garden variety, popcorn afternoon storms each day for Thursday through the weekend. The good news is that I’m not seeing any excessive heat signals in the model data, which is a relief for now given that the first official day of Summer is Friday.

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac

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