Rain Chances Remain High for Sunday – Saturday Evening Forecast Update 9:10 PM

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Today marks the first day of Meteorological Summer, but don’t get that confused with astronomical summer which begins on June 21 – our summer solstice. Today also marks the first day of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and do we have any tropical trouble brewing? More on that in a moment…

Over the course of the day today, we had numerous spotty showers and storms across the area, before a decaying line of showers and embedded storms pushed through west Alabama earlier this evening. The winds gusted up to around 30 mph in Tuscaloosa, which is well below the severe criterion of 58 mph. Current radar imagery shows an organizing cluster of thunderstorms over the Arklamiss region, and it looks like this feature will gradually slide east-southeast into central/south-central Missisippi during the overnight hours.

One way or the other, a tropical airmass remains across the area, and with the approach of a frontal boundary tomorrow, it seems likely that numerous showers and storms will once again develop, potentially by mid to late morning, lasting much of the afternoon. The frontal boundary will gradually move eastward tomorrow, and we may have some residual clouds and/or a few showers early Monday morning, but with drier air filtering in behind the front, the sky should become mostly sunny by Monday afternoon.

The weather should remain dry into Tuesday and Wednesday as well, with temperatures creeping back toward the 90 degree mark. The forecast for the latter half of the week is a little more uncertain. Both the GFS and the Euro develop a weak tropical system in the southern Gulf, but both models take it toward the Florida Peninsula, leaving us on the dry side of the system. But, the GFS also suggests lower mid-level heights / a weak trough/across the area by the end of the week, and with moisture in place, it felt prudent to me to go ahead and introduce rain chances back into the forecast for Thursday – Saturday. But, this forecast is certainly subject to change over the next couple of days, so stay tuned!

Isaac Williams
WVUA-TV Weather
Twitter: @WVUA_Isaac