Very Warm with Lots and Lots of Rain…. Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 3:35 pm


Good Tuesday to you! It turned out to be a really nice weather day across our state, as temperatures began the forecasted warm-up. This is only the beginning of a major pattern change for Alabama over the next 5 to 7 days, as we deal with well above average temperatures and some big-time rains along the way.

Today featured no weather issues at all, with most spots reaching the lower 60s for highs. A warm front is slowly moving closer to Alabama from the southwest. You’ve probably noticed the quick increase in clouds late lastnight and this morning. The clouds are signs of mid level moisture and lift across our area. As the warm front gets even closer, the cloud deck will drop to lower levels of the atmosphere, and rain should begin late tonight and early on Wednesday in west and central Alabama. The best chance of rain before daybreak will occur in west Alabama, but rain chances will spread east through the morning hours tomorrow. The heavier coverage of rain is expected to remain west of I-65 through tomorrow night. Since the surface low and best lift will remain to our west, that’s where the heaviest rain will also occur.



The map above is the forecast rain totals off the RPM between now and Friday morning. Check out the extremely high rain totals over Louisiana and Arkansas. If this model is correct, rain totals could exceed 10 inches over south and central Louisiana and 5 inches over southeast Arkanasas. That’s just between now and Friday morning. Rain will likely continue at times through the middle of next week, as several waves of low pressure ride along a stationary front. This could spell for a very serious flooding event for parts of the south, including Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas and Texas. We’ll have more on this in the days ahead.

Around here, forecast rain totals between now and Friday morning could approach 2 inches. While that doesn’t seem like enough to cause major flooding issues, I’m much more concerned about the next round of heavy rain that could occur late Sunday through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Some forecast models are showing days of heavy rain setting up over Alabama between Sunday and Wednesday. If that’s the case, we would have big issues here locally as well. We’ll continue to fine-tune the forecast and let you know where we think the heavier rain will setup. Again, the 1st round of heavy rain will mainly stay west of Alabama between now and Friday. That being said, we will pick up some impressive rain totals here, but I don’t think it will be enough to cause flooding. The 2nd round, that’s due in here late in the weekend and early next week could be the one to cause big flooding issues.

Expect a good chance of rain in west and central Alabama late tonight, on Wednesday, Thursday and early Friday. It will not rain all day, but periods of showers and storms are likely at any time. You’ll need to keep the rain gear handy. Despite the rain, temperatures will get very warm for this time of the year. Highs will easily reach the middle 60s on Wednesday and middle to upper 70s on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The rain chance will become a little more scattered to isolated on Saturday and Sunday, with a few breaks in the clouds. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 50s each night. Another soaking rain will take over to end the weekend and start of next week. Since we’re going to be stuck on the west side of an intense ridge and to the east of a major western US trough, the pattern of unsettled weather will lock up right over us…

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Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist


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