Cold Saturday and Rain Ahead

Thanks to a cold front yesterday we have a much drier air mass in place across the area. A northwest flow over the next 24 hours will usher in even more dry air, along with jacket required temperatures. Surface ridging will also slide into the Southeast, and as we approach the morning hours on Sunday, that ridge axis will be positioned directly overhead. This will help create conditions of maximum radiational cooling and provide Central Alabama with the coldest temperatures of the season. Overnight lows in the middle 20s will be prevalent area wide. Modest warming will be slow on Sunday as the surface ridge moves eastward and that northwest flow becomes a little more zonal. Additionally the position of the high pressure will help to mix a good punch of dry air to the surface Sunday.

Changes will be on the horizon for Monday as we monitor the development and approach of our next system.  The longwave pattern over the northern portion of the country will finally amplify just enough to make its presence seen on Monday in the south.  A shortwave will traverse the Rockies Monday morning and by Monday afternoon a low pressure system is expected to develop just west of ArkLaTex.  Models have fluctuated over the last few days in regards to the path of this low, with the GFS showing a much more northerly track as recent as yesterday. Today`s soup of solutions seems to be in a bit more agreement, with a moderately amplified trough passing through the Mississippi Valley Monday night, keeping the surface low on a trajectory that moves it through northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama Tuesday morning. Typically speaking, this could create some fairly dicey environmental parameters for us, especially this time of year, but with the upper trough remaining positively tilted through its trek the surface low remains fairly constant in pressure as it moves through the Southeast. This means only a weak return flow ahead of the front and extremely modest instability, as well as only enough shear to support general thunderstorm development. Expect prefrontal showers to begin moving into the state Monday night. Coverage could be pretty extensive, but will hold firm with no mention of thunder until the front breaks into the state Tuesday morning. Any shift in the tilt of this upper trough could cause more surface based instability for the late morning/early afternoon hours of Tuesday, enough to where the mention of marginally severe weather may become needed for areas south of Interstate 20.

Dry conditions will again follow the passage of Tuesday`s front. Though the cold air advection is not expected to be as intense as this weekend, temperatures should fall off once again by midweek and slowly moderate back toward normal by next weekend.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Cold Weekend/Iron Bowl! Storms Next Week… Friday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:45pm

Good Friday evening to you! Cold air is taking over across the area this evening, as a sharp cold front slices through the state. Temperatures range from the upper 50s in Birmingham to lower 70s in Montgomery as of 4:30 pm. The front will continue to dive southward through the night and will move off the coast by midnight. We can expect some of the coldest air so far this season to arrive over the weekend, as all of west and central Alabama deal with a hard freeze Saturday night. We may even deal with a light freeze tonight, with a low near 32.

Skies will become clear tonight, so the leftover local high school football game playoffs will be cold. Temperatures will fall into the lower 50s by 7 pm and middle 40s at 10 pm tonight. Winds will place wind chill values into the 30s by the end of the games tonight. Despite ample sunshine on Saturday, cold air advection will offset afternoon heating for the most part. Temperatures will have a hard time climbing above 49 degrees, but areas near and south of Tuscaloosa should reach the lower 50s after lunch. Winds will remain in the 5 to 10 mph range, but some gusts will reach 20 mph from time to time.

Iron Bowl: If you’re going to Bryant-Denny on Saturday, temperatures are looking cold! Look for a 2:30 pm kickoff temperature near 53 degrees, with a fall into the upper 40s by 2nd Quarter and lower 40s during 4th Quarter. The good news is the forecast calls for dry conditions during the entire games. The Alabama/Auburn game is known for cold and wet weather, but this year will be a little different… just cold…

A hard freeze is likely Saturday night, with a temperature near 25 degrees across west and central Alabama. Some of the typical cooler spots north of I-20 will fall into the lower 20s. This will be the coldest night of the season so far. We’ll deal with a moderate to heavy frost Sunday morning.

A quick warm-up is expected on Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the middle to upper 60s. Skies remain sunny on Sunday, but skies become mostly cloudy on Monday. A few showers are possible by Monday evening. There’s a good chance of rain and a few thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday morning. As a deep upper air trough progresses eastward, a weak surface low and cold front will develop ahead of that. Moisture levels are looking moderate across our area, so there should be a pretty nice swath of rain develop over our area. Rain totals will reach 1/2 an inch for many areas.

The trough really lifts out on Wednesday and Thursday. Instead of a sharp change to cold air, temperatures will remain cool on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will warm into the lower 60s both days, with lows in the 30s at night. There are signs of another fast moving storm system arriving towards Friday or Saturday. Model data is up in the air with that feature, so we’ll watch it.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Cold Air Moving in Now…Iron Bowl Forecast Update – Friday Update 3pm

Good Friday evening! As of 3pm, a strong cold front was pushing through central Alabama. At that time, the front was just south of I-20, were a thick band of clouds was located. The cold front is moving southeast at a fast rate of speed and will clear through south Alabama later this evening and early tonight. Temperatures are falling behind the front and will continue to fall through the night.

Notice the swath of clouds across much of west and central Alabama. There is no rain under these clouds, and the clouds will push out from northwest to southeast. The clearing line will reach Tuscaloosa and Birmingham around 5pm and the Demopolis area between 5 and 7pm.

Cold air will move across all of Alabama tonight, with a low between 31 and 35. Despite lots of sun tomorrow, conditions will be very chilly for the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa. Look for a 2:30pm kickoff temperature near 52 degrees, with a fall into the 40s after halftime. Temperatures will then reach the lower 40s during 4th quarter. Take the thick jacket for this game! The good news is there will be no rain in the forecast, so the stadium will remain dry.

A hard freeze is likely tomorrow night, with a Sunday morning temperature near 25 degrees.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Thursday Evening Forecast Discussion – 8:45 p.m.

We could not have asked for a more beautiful Thanksgiving Day with a high pressure ridge stretching across the Deep South on up the Atlantic states today and not record breaking but mild and above normal readings. That is set to change as we move into the big shopping and sport filled weekend as a front is set to move through the state on Friday. Although moisture is marginal with not much turnaround time between the ridge overhead and our next system moving through just enough moisture may be present to squeeze a few showers across the northern half of Central Alabama. However, as the system pushes southeastward, it weakens more with even less moisture. The main low with this system will remain far removed moving across the northern Great Lakes into eastern Canada tomorrow.

Now on to post front no. 1, much cooler air will move in behind this system. The coolest readings so far this year with lows in the 30s for Friday night, highs generally in the 50s for Saturday and lows Saturday night even lower in the 20s area wide. After the front moves through Friday, the surface ridge will invade the Central Plains and into the mid Mississippi River Valley through Saturday with decent northerly flow to push cooler air into Central Alabama with the ridge finally settling over the Deep South Saturday night. So with northerly winds Saturday the daytime will feel even colder so dress warmly for activities. Weather will be very dry for the daytime Saturday/Sunday under strong ridge.

The surface ridge is expected to continue to progress southeastward on Sunday to southeast Georgia/northern Florida by Sunday night allowing for the return flow of moisture to commence. Models continue to be in somewhat disagreement on placement of upper/surface lows along with their strength. Both models take the main upper energy well to our north and positively tilted. However, both have ample shear, cape, etc. With much moisture sounding profiles are more of a line once activity arrives with greatly above normal precipitable water values. There still needs to be some dry air aloft for there to be sufficient storms to have severe weather. Right now it looks like there will be some thunderstorms during the day, especially Tuesday during the afternoon heating, but severe still remains much in question.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Nice Thanksgiving! Cold Iron Bowl! Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:15pm

Good Wednesday afternoon to you! Our weather was perfect for one of the busiest travel days of the  year. Skies remained sunny all day, with a high between 72 and 75 across all of west and central Alabama. Light to calm winds have also made for a pleasant afternoon. Conditions will change as we move into the weekend, but the next 48 hours will feature perfect fall weather.

Temperatures will drop fast this evening, much like lastnight. Look for temperatures to reach the upper 50s at 7 pm and lower 50s at 10 pm. Skies are expected to remain clear through the night. Thanksgiving day is looking much like today, with ample sunshine and mild conditions. Highs will reach the lower 70s on Thursday and Friday.

A sharp upper air trough will move in from the northwest on Friday. The trough will send a strong cold front into Alabama Friday evening. Ahead of the front and upper air trough, we’ll notice an increase in clouds, but the risk of rain is very low. A passing shower can’t be ruled out. After reaching 70 Friday afternoon, temperatures will rapidly drop into the 30s Friday night. Most spots will drop to the 32 to 35 degree range first thing Saturday morning.

Iron Bowl on Saturday is looking like a cold and windy game. Winds will gust to 20 or 25 mph at times on Saturday, driving wind chill values into the 40s all day. Highs will struggle to reach the lower 50s on Saturday. If you’re going to Bryant-Denny for the Alabama/Auburn game, take the thick jacket. We will drop into the upper 40s around halftime and lower 40s to end the game.

A moderate freeze is expected Saturday night/Sunday morning. Most spots will drop into the middle to upper 20s. This will be the coldest night of the winter season. Look for a good supply of sunshine on Saturday and Sunday. Highs will return into the upper 50s on Sunday. 60s are expected on Monday and Tuesday for highs.

Another storm system will approach by Monday night and on Tuesday. This system will have a nice moisture supply to work with, so showers and a few thunderstorms will become likely. I don’t expect a major risk of severe weather at this point, due to the lacking instability, but it needs to be watched. If instability increases ahead of the low and cold front, there could be some strong to severe storms. We’ll update the forecast as we get closer.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Winter 2012 – 2013 Prediction…Alabama Snow This Winter? Tuesday Update 5:35pm

Good Tuesday evening! There’s lots of speculation to how this winter will setup across the US, but I’ve got to warn you,  forecasting a winter season is very tough and can be wrong. Meteorologists look at forecast models and trends across the northern hemisphere to determine how a season will set up. Conditions such as blocking in the Arctic, El Nino or La Nina, active or inactive subtropical jetstream and much more can become huge factors in predicting the winter season… Lets dive in…

First, the weak El Nino has weakened into Neutral mode, so the bigger factors could include the AO and NAO (Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation). The graphic above shows the past few months and the forecast plots of the AO and NAO. You’ll notice the red lines are spiking into the negative range on both Oscillations. This means there will be significant blocking across the north Atlantic and Arctic. A “Blocking Pattern” would favor an intense ridge extending northward across the central and western Atlantic and a deep upper air trough across the east or central US. If forecast data is correct, the strong blocking pattern is developing now and will continue to intensify over the next few weeks. We should notice cold air outbreaks across the southeast and east coast through the month of December.

A negative NAO and AO often means for big east coast blizzards through the winter, as the pattern favors a slower eastward movement of a trough and an ideal setup for rapidly developing surface lows up the east coast.

Below is a map I put together showing what should be the setup, atleast for early winter. Again, these patterns can change in a hurry, so it’s important to keep an eye on short term forecasts, rather than seasonal forecasts. Alabama may not get a single snow event, but I really expect several brushes with winter weather if our forecast pattern holds true. I’ve noted where west and central Alabama could very well deal with several snow storms through the months of December, January, February and March. Alberta Clippers or developing Gulf Lows would be the main culprit for snow events in Alabama this winter. As the lows round the base of the trough and head up the east coast, powerful northeast blizzards will become a concern. Will Alabama see a blizzard? Who knows at this point… Sure, a pattern like this could favor a rare winter event for Alabama, but it takes a unique setup for that to occur. Again, it’s more important to pay attention to the 7-day forecast.

This winter could resemble the 2009 and 2010 season, where west and central Alabama deals with several winter storms.  It will be interesting to watch the short term forecast data unfold over the next few months. I sure feel like we’ll have to put snow in the forecast a few times this winter.

If you recall, last winter was looking interesting with the chance of winter weather events. The blocking pattern faded away during the winter, so that kept the really cold air north of Alabama. Again, these patterns can change fast. It’s worth keeping an eye on for sure.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Mild Days Ahead… Cold Weekend! Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:30pm

Good Tuesday afternoon to you! It has been a pleasant afternoon, as temperatures warmed into the upper 60s across all of west and central Alabama. The upper air disturbance brought lots of clouds this morning, and a few light showers over southwest Alabama. Most spots didn’t get a drop, but just enough moisture slipped in here to wet a few roads. As the sun sets, temperatures will drop fairly quick this evening. Look for temperatures to reach the upper 50s by 7 pm and upper 40s around 10 pm. Skies will remain clear tonight, with a low between 40 and 44.

Wednesday is one of the busiest travel days of the year across the US, and we can expect perfect weather in Alabama. Skies will remain mostly sunny on Wednesday, with a high near 70. Winds will remain light to calm across our area on Wednesday and Thursday, as a surface high settles over the area. Wednesday and Thursday will feature identical weather. If you have outdoor plans on Thanksgiving or that trip to Grandma’s for dinner, our weather couldn’t look better. Look for cool conditions at night, with a low between 40 and 44 through Friday morning.

Friday will feature an increase in clouds as a deep upper air trough moves in from the west. While the midday hours will feature mild temperatures, the cold front will be highly noticed with a rapid drop in temperatures near and after sunset. Most of the remaining high school football games will deal with a clear sky and temperatures reaching the 40s at the end of the games. I don’t expect heavy rain at all on Friday, but the dynamics will be enough to get a few sprinkles here or maybe a quick light shower. The best chance of that will happen between lunch and 8pm. Again, most spots won’t get a drop.

Iron Bowl is looking very chilly, as a howling north wind takes over. Highs will struggle to reach the lower 50s on Saturday. Skies are expected to remain mostly sunny on Saturday and Sunday. As the sun sets Saturday evening, temperatures will drop into the 30s by 9 pm. Kickoff for the Alabama/Auburn game at Bryant-Denny is at 2:30 pm. We will end up in the 40s by mid-game.

A moderate freeze is expected by Saturday night/Sunday morning, with a low near 28 degrees. All of west and central Alabama will notice temperatures between 25 and 32 degrees. As winds go calm, a moderate frost will develop Saturday night. Skies will remain sunny for the rest of the weekend.

A few showers will arrive on Monday, as a warm front lifts north through the state. A deep upper air trough is expected to arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday. Models are all over the board on this storm system, so data is not consistent enough to put severe weather wording in the forecast. It is something to watch… At this point, it looks more like a nice rain event, with a few embedded thunderstorms.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Quiet Thanksgiving/Iron Bowl Week… Day By Day Forecast Details! – 4:45pm Update

Good Monday afternoon! It sure has turned out to be a nice day, with a high in the middle to upper 60s. While we did notice some clouds around lunch, sunshine has returned in full force this afternoon. An upper air disturbance is moving our way from the midwest and will reach our area tomorrow. While skies will become partly to mostly cloudy at times tonight and on Tuesday, there is no rain in the forecast.

Temperatures won’t get as cold tonight, as we deal with an increase in clouds. Look for lows in the lower 40s across all of west and central Alabama. Despite clouds at times on Tuesday, we should still reach the upper 60s in many areas. As the upper air disturbance moves out of the area on Wednesday and Thursday, skies will become sunny.

Wednesday: One of the busiest travel days of the year will feature calm conditions across Alabama and most of the US. Alabama’s weather will feature sunny skies and mild daytime temperatures. We’ll start the day in the lower 40s and end up close to 70 after lunch on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will be light to calm through the day.

Thursday (Thanksgiving): We can expect a chilly start to the day, with lower 40s across the area. Highs will warm to around 70 during the early afternoon hours.

Black Friday: Look for an increase in clouds through the day as a strong cold front moves in from the northwest. The front should arrive sometime Friday afternoon or night, with a quick drop in temperature behind the front. Highs will get close to 70 on Friday, but I don’t expect any rain ahead of the front. Since moisture levels will remain very limited, there’s no fuel for rain to develop. Overall, Friday will be a great day to take care of some Christmas Shopping.

Iron Bowl Saturday: This is a big game-day for many, as the big state rivalry kicks off. Alabama takes on Auburn in Tuscaloosa at Bryant-Denny Stadium. As really chilly weather takes over our area, you’ll need the thick jacket. While skies will become sunny, a brisk north wind and cold air will make conditions feel rough. Temperatures will reach the middle to upper 50s at the 2:30 pm kickoff, with temperatures falling into the 40s after halftime. Once the sun sets, temperatures will drop quick! As winds calm down Saturday night, most spots will deal with a freeze. Temperatures will average between 28 and 31 degrees.

Temperatures will remain chilly through Sunday, with a high struggling to reach the lower 60s.

There are signs of really cold air at the end of the month or to kick off December. As we deal with an increase in blocking across the Arctic, we can expect some cold days ahead; especially in December. In-fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if we start dealing with some severe weather issues ahead of cold snaps during parts of December. There may even be a winter weather threat or two during the month of December. Interesting days ahead….

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion – 8:35 p.m.

 

It was another beautiful fall day across Central Alabama with sunny skies and nice temperatures. Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level low to the east just off the South Carolina and Georgia coast with a weak ridge building in across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi River valleys.

Tonight, temperatures are not expected to drop as low as the past few nights. Models are showing that easterly flow will advect in low level moisture overnight. Additionally, winds may remain up just a bit to prevent temperatures from dropping as low as they have been the past few nights. However, overnight lows are still expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Into the work week, upper level flow will remain rather zonal on Monday. Clouds will overspread much of the forecast area as easterly winds continue to push low level moisture to the west. On Tuesday, a trough will move across the forecast area. Models are drier today than they were yesterday with precipitable water values of only 0.75 inches. Additionally, model soundings indicate the moisture will be rather shallow. A few sprinkles or light showers could be possible on Tuesday but there is not enough confidence for any mention in the forecast.

For the middle part of the week, the trough deepens off the east coast as the ridge amplifies over our area. Therefore, expect mostly sunny skies and temperatures near normal in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. Thanksgiving morning will be the chilliest portion of this timeframe. Thanksgiving morning low temperatures will be in the upper 30s and low 40s with surface high pressure centered over the area.

Models are in fairly good agreement as a trough to the north moves a front through the area on Saturday. Models indicate that this front will be dry with a cooler air moving in behind the front for next weekend.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Nice Skies for the Time Being – Saturday 9:30 a.m.

It’s a beautiful football Saturday across all of the Southeastern Conference. Few to no clouds in most areas with temperatures in the 60s for the most part across the region. Central Alabama will remain in a relatively benign weather pattern for the next 7 days. An upper level low across the southeastern states this morning is forecast to fill and lift eastward through the weekend, taking any chances of cloudiness with it. That will leave clear conditions through at least Monday. Another weak upper level low could bring some clouds or light showers on Tuesday. But that system will also quickly move eastward, leaving more dry air in its wake. With a largely zonal flow temperatures will stay pretty close to seasonal normals, perhaps a bit warmer during the day and a bit cooler at night.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather