Scattered Storms Continue…Weekend Forecast…Bama Gameday Forecast – 6:20pm Update Wednesday

Good Wednesday afternoon to you! The weather across the deep south has been very active today due to the large Isaac. The system is moving to the northwest and is slowly pulling away from the New Orleans Area. As the storms moves well inland, it is weakening, so look for the strong winds around Isaac to die down a bit over the next 12 hours. It’s a little breezy in central and west Alabama, but it’s only helping to make our local weather feel rather pleasant. A few storms have moved across central and western Alabama, but there is no problems with flooding around our area. Since Isaac is far enough southwest of our area, the big problems are out of our area.

The risk of scattered storms will continue over the next couple of days, but rain chances will gradually drop by the time we reach Labor Day Weekend. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through Friday. I can’t rule out an isolated tornado this evening or on Thursday, but the chance is very low. The best chance of showers and storms will occur in western Alabama today and on Thursday. Keep the rain gear handy across all of west and central Alabama because storms will move in fast. It will not rain all day, and not everyone will pick up all that much rain.

Labor Day Weekend is looking nice for the most part. There will be some storms in the area, due to the soupy airmass in place from Isaac. The chance of rain on Saturday and Sunday stands at 40%. While thunderstorms will develop in spots, it will not rain all day. The best chance of storms will occur during the afternoon hours both Saturday and Sunday. Keep the rain gear handy. Expect skies to become partly cloudy over the weekend. Rain chances continue to drop early next week.

Alabama takes on Michigan in Dallas on Saturday. If you’re heading out to Cowboys Stadium, it will be hot outside the dome, with temperatures in the 90s during the day. Isaac will have no impact on the outdoor events surrounding the game. Keep in mind you may have to drive through the mess on the way to Texas, but conditions will improve quickly west of Louisiana from Isaac.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

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Storms At Times Today Through Friday… Bad News From The New Orleans Area! – Wednesday Morning Forecast 9am

Good Wednesday morning. As of 9am, Isaac is still a hurricane over south Louisiana. The storm is causing major flooding issues across southeast Louisiana, south Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama. There have been reports of levees topped near the New Orleans area due to storm surge. Water rescues are ongoing now in parts of that area, where water has risen to 12 feet on some houses! We’ll know more over the next few hours. While it’s just a category 1 storm, it’s a very large storm. That has allowed the surge to build up in areas of the Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana Gulf Coast. Since the storm is nearly stationary, the water continues to pile up across southeast Louisiana, causing big issues. The very heavy rain may cause a flooding situation in New Orleans due to the long duration of heavy rains. The pumps there may not be able to keep up.

Our local weather has been pretty quiet, despite Isaac moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into southeast Louisiana. Some dry air got pulled into Isaac yesterday and on Monday, so that really dried up much of the outer rain bands of the storm. That being said, instability will cause storms to fire up further away from Isaac late this morning and into the afternoon hours. I expect a good chance of scattered banding showers and storms around Isaac this afternoon and evening. We’re just close enough to the storm to bring the risk of an isolated tornado today or on Thursday. I think the chance of that is small, but we’ll need to watch the radar. The main risk low end risk will occur in areas southwest of Tuscaloosa today and west of I-65 tomorrow. If a tornado develops in our area, it will likely be small and not last long at all.

This has been a tough storm to forecast for sure due to a nearby trough and ridge. The ridge seems to be winning the battle and has pulled Isaac far enough away from our area to keep the big issues our of here. As the storm tracks northwest over the next couple of days, we’ll be on that east, unsettled side of the storm, so scattered storms will be possible at any point today, Thursday and Friday. Look for highs to remain in the 80s. It will not rain all day, but keep the rain gear handy incase storms move over your area. Expect breezy conditions around the storms that develop.

The chance of rain drops off this weekend to 30 or 40%, so many areas will deal with a pretty nice Labor Day Weekend. While there’s a risk of a few storms here or there, don’t expect an all day type of rain. Skies will become partly cloudy over the weekend, with highs near 90.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Isaac Remains a Hurricane, No Movement – Wednesday 2 a.m.

HURRICANE ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  32B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
200 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

…ISAAC REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND FLOOD THREAT FROM HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT…0700 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-

LOCATION…29.0N 90.0W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 70 MI…110 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.58 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS…LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA

* MORGAN CITY TO SABINE PASS TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF SABINE PASS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————

AT 200 AM CDT…0700 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST.  ISAAC HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS MORNING.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA THIS MORNING…AND MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THIS MORNING.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM.  A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST TO 71 MPH WAS OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IN NEW ORLEANS.  A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB…28.58 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA…3 TO 6 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA…3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY…2 TO 4 FT
* REMAINDER OF FLORIDA WEST COAST…1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.  NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

A STORM SURGE OF 10.7 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA.  A STORM SURGE OF 7.5 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE IN WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING…AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. AT ABOUT THE 30TH STORY…WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

RAINFALL…ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES…OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHERN ALABAMA…AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.

TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 AM CDT.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Tropical Storm Kirk Forms… Central Atlantic… Tuesday Update 10pm

Here’s brand new Tropical Storm Kirk. The good news is that this system will stay out in the Atlantic, with no impacts on the US. Here’s an update from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST…WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -70C…HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2338 UTC SHOWED RELIABLE WIND VECTORS NEAR 40 KT OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER. THEREFORE…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 40 KT…AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KIRK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMAINING GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION…GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS SEEM UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION…THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SUGGEST THAT KIRK COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY UPWARD BUT IS STILL BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA HAS HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF KIRK…AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 280/10.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME…A GRADUAL TURN TO TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING LARGE- SCALE TROUGH.  THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM AND…AS A RESULT…HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE EAST WITH RECURVATURE OCCURRING AROUND 50W. THE NEW OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONSIDERS THE GFS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME AND REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Weather Pictures from Gulf Shores! – Tuesday Update 5:20pm

Good Tuesday afternoon to you! Check out these pictures sent from Bridget  Sheffield. She took these pictures in Gulf Shores. It’s incredible to see the  waves crash into the Public Pier at Gulf Shores State Park. Conditions  there are very nasty, but the hurricane warning has been lifted from the Alabama  Gulf Coast. There will be some flooding due to low storm surge, so please use  caution if you’re at the coast. Weather conditions there will calm down on  Friday and Saturday, in time for Labor Day Weekend.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Isaac Update…Alabama Impacts… – Tuesday 4:40pm Update

Good Tuesday afternoon to you! Weather conditions around the area will gradually go downhill this evening and tonight, as hurricane Isaac gets a little closer to the area. The track has shifted a little west, which should keep significant weather to our west. Here’s what to expect across west and central Alabama….

Tonight – Thursday: periods of rain and thunderstorms. Some storms could produce a quick spin-up tornado, but the threat is low. Winds will gust to 30 mph around the area, but winds like that are not all that significant at all. Since Isaac is a weak hurricane and is tracking far west of our area, the effects will be pretty low. That being said, our weather will remain unsettled, with rain and storms at times. Keep the rain gear handy through Friday. Rain chances will gradually decrease on Saturday and Sunday. It will not rain all day or night, but rain will move in from time to time.

Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHTS INTO ISAAC…WHEN A BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WIND OF 64 KT WAS OBSERVED…THE RADAR AND SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ON THIS BASIS…THE ESTIMATED  INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES IN THE AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELDS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 310/07 KT. ISAAC REMAINS ON TRACK…AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. ISSAC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 30N LATITUDE. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAKNESS… THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS…WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISAAC SLOWING DOWN SOME MORE. AFTERWARDS…THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN BY ALL OF THE MODELS…ALBEIT TO VARYING DEGREES…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWARD BY DAY 4…AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY DAY 5. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS THAT HAVE RECENTLY HAD A LEFTWARD BIAS.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AT 12 HOURS…FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME SUGGEST THAT ISAAC COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.  HOWEVER…BECAUSE OF THE UNUSUALLY LARGE WIND FIELD…RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

ISAAC REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE…HEAVY RAINFALL…AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. FOR THIS REASON…IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Isaac Now A Hurricane… Tuesday Update 11:30am

Isaac is now a hurricane. Here’s an update from the National Hurricane Center….

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

…RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE STATUS…

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT  INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED  TO 75 MPH…120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS…ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT…1620 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.1N 88.6W
ABOUT 75 MI…115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI…250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.79 INCHES

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com