Tropical Storm Kirk Forms… Central Atlantic… Tuesday Update 10pm

Here’s brand new Tropical Storm Kirk. The good news is that this system will stay out in the Atlantic, with no impacts on the US. Here’s an update from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST…WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -70C…HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2338 UTC SHOWED RELIABLE WIND VECTORS NEAR 40 KT OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER. THEREFORE…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 40 KT…AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KIRK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMAINING GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION…GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS SEEM UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION…THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SUGGEST THAT KIRK COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY UPWARD BUT IS STILL BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA HAS HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF KIRK…AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 280/10.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME…A GRADUAL TURN TO TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING LARGE- SCALE TROUGH.  THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM AND…AS A RESULT…HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE EAST WITH RECURVATURE OCCURRING AROUND 50W. THE NEW OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONSIDERS THE GFS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME AND REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

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Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

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Weather Pictures from Gulf Shores! – Tuesday Update 5:20pm

Good Tuesday afternoon to you! Check out these pictures sent from Bridget  Sheffield. She took these pictures in Gulf Shores. It’s incredible to see the  waves crash into the Public Pier at Gulf Shores State Park. Conditions  there are very nasty, but the hurricane warning has been lifted from the Alabama  Gulf Coast. There will be some flooding due to low storm surge, so please use  caution if you’re at the coast. Weather conditions there will calm down on  Friday and Saturday, in time for Labor Day Weekend.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

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Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

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Isaac Update…Alabama Impacts… – Tuesday 4:40pm Update

Good Tuesday afternoon to you! Weather conditions around the area will gradually go downhill this evening and tonight, as hurricane Isaac gets a little closer to the area. The track has shifted a little west, which should keep significant weather to our west. Here’s what to expect across west and central Alabama….

Tonight – Thursday: periods of rain and thunderstorms. Some storms could produce a quick spin-up tornado, but the threat is low. Winds will gust to 30 mph around the area, but winds like that are not all that significant at all. Since Isaac is a weak hurricane and is tracking far west of our area, the effects will be pretty low. That being said, our weather will remain unsettled, with rain and storms at times. Keep the rain gear handy through Friday. Rain chances will gradually decrease on Saturday and Sunday. It will not rain all day or night, but rain will move in from time to time.

Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHTS INTO ISAAC…WHEN A BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WIND OF 64 KT WAS OBSERVED…THE RADAR AND SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ON THIS BASIS…THE ESTIMATED  INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES IN THE AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELDS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 310/07 KT. ISAAC REMAINS ON TRACK…AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. ISSAC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 30N LATITUDE. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAKNESS… THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS…WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISAAC SLOWING DOWN SOME MORE. AFTERWARDS…THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN BY ALL OF THE MODELS…ALBEIT TO VARYING DEGREES…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWARD BY DAY 4…AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY DAY 5. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS THAT HAVE RECENTLY HAD A LEFTWARD BIAS.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AT 12 HOURS…FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME SUGGEST THAT ISAAC COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.  HOWEVER…BECAUSE OF THE UNUSUALLY LARGE WIND FIELD…RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

ISAAC REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE…HEAVY RAINFALL…AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. FOR THIS REASON…IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Isaac Now A Hurricane… Tuesday Update 11:30am

Isaac is now a hurricane. Here’s an update from the National Hurricane Center….

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

…RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE STATUS…

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT  INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED  TO 75 MPH…120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS…ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT…1620 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.1N 88.6W
ABOUT 75 MI…115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI…250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.79 INCHES

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Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

 

Tropical Showers Increasing Across Central and West AL… Isolated Tornadoes Possible This Eve – Wednesday… Tuesday Update 11am

Good Tuesday morning! As of 11am, a band of tropical showers continues to move north through the state. Moderate rain is falling over a good chunk of central and north Alabama, but this band continues to slowly track to the north. Additional showers are starting to develop south of Tuscaloosa. All of the activity on radar is moving northwest. At this point, there are no severe issues across the area. As some of these bands spiral around, there could be a stray small tornado this evening across south of HWY 80. I don’t expect big issues today.

Expect showers to continue to increase across all of west and central Alabama for the rest of this Tuesday. Winds will get a little gusty, but nothing to bring down trees and powerlines. The center of Isaac will move into southeast Louisiana later this evening or tonight. As the system continues to move northwest, we’ll be on the east side of the circulation. The east side is where most of the rain and thunderstorms occur. There is some hint that the center tracks a little further west, so that will limit the risk of flooding across central and west Alabama. Rain totals will range from 2 to 4 inches across southwest Alabama (areas near and southwest of Tuscaloosa) and 1 to 3 inches near and northeast of Birmingham. It will not rain solid all day or night, but the outer bands of Isaac will move through our area from time to time.

The tornado threat is low, but an isolated tornado or two is possible this evening, tonight and on Wednesday. Remain alert incase a tornado warning is issued for your area. Any tornado that develops should remain small, but even small tornadoes can be life-threatening.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Beach Camera Look at 10am Tuesday…

This is a 10am Tuesday morning view from Destin, FL. The waves are huge, with storm surge covering the beach at this point. Water levels will continue to rise today and tonight along the Florida Panhandle, Alabama coast, Mississippi coast and Southeast Louisiana. Stay away from the coast today through Thursday!

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

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Flooding Threat Lower…Isolated Tornadoes Possible… Tuesday Morning Update 8:45am

Good Tuesday morning! As of 8:45am, Isaac is still a tropical storm. It is in the process of becoming a weak hurricane, but the good news is that it’s running out of time to get very well organized. Isaac is expected to become a category 1 storm before landfall, which means damaging winds will be fairly minor, even for areas directly impacted by the center. The storm is large, so gusty winds will be noticed well east of the center. Even here in west and central Alabama, we’ll deal winds gusting to 35mph. That’s far to low to cause any big issues.

Expect showers to gradually increase through the day from south to north across west and central Alabama. There’s a risk of isolated tornadoes starting in southwest Alabama this evening and tonight. All of our central and west Alabama counties will deal with a threat of isolated tornadoes tonight, on Wednesday and Thursday. As the system continues to weaken inland and stays pretty far west of our area, the tornado threat should die out by Thursday night. I don’t expect an issue with large tornadoes, but small tornadoes are possible across our area. The tornado threat is pretty isolated, again late this evening through Thursday. Locally heavy rain will become possible at times later today through Thursday. Tropical showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue at times through Thursday.

The track takes Isaac inland near the mouth of the Mississippi River late tonight, with a track over New Orleans early Wednesday morning. The storm then tracks across extreme southwest Mississippi early Thursday morning, then to Little Rock by Friday. We’ll continue to deal with tropical showers at times through Friday.

The flooding threat is a bit lower across our area. The latest numbers from HPC show 3 to 5 inches of rain over southwest Alabama, near and southwest of Tuscaloosa. With rain totals between 2 and 3 inches across the rest of central and east Alabama. This should limit flooding. Very serious flooding is possible across the Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana Gulf Coast over the next several days, with 10 to 20 inches possible there!

Keep the rain gear handy over the next 3 to 4 days. It will not rain solid, all day and night, but periods of heavy rain are possible at times. There could be some long duration of rain for an hour or two, then expect a break in the rain at times. Mostly cloudy skies, with periods of rain will keep temperatures in the 80s across the area through Thursday.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.comor WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com