TS Isaac, New Models, More Changes – Sunday 3 p.m.
August 26, 2012 Leave a comment
The 18z models are finally available and well, like every model run for the past three days, they bring more changes. This mornings models almost all trended toward a Louisiana/Texas landfall, now they are moving back to the east and some still predict the Alabama gulf coast. Again, there is still a lot of time and elements that will influence Isaac before it makes landfall Tuesday along the northern gulf. Isaac is looking better on satellite and the center is becoming better organized, an eye was visible on radar a couple of hours ago as the storm approached Key West. Isaac is still expected to become a hurricane sometime tonight.
Now lets talk about the latest models. The image above are the 18z forecast models which are trending more east now. The swap from east to west and back has been the trend over the past few days and now I’m starting to feel that maybe we should believe a central track is the most likely and that would be somewhere along the MS/AL gulf coast. One model to note is the EGRI from the UK Meteorology service, it and CMCI or Canadian model are some of the most trusted. The UK model has consistently trended further east than all of the other models. That is why the National Hurricane Center has only slightly shifted their forecast track to the west. We are now seeing other models moving back east so the cone of uncertainty is growing in size and with it, the forecast uncertainty. After we get through tonight and into tomorrow we should start getting a better idea as to exactly where Isaac will track. Nonetheless, at this point it seems that West Alabama will feel the effects of Isaac in some form, that has not changed. We will likely have wind and rain, but it is still not clear if we get the worst of it or the easiest part of it. If Isaac follows the CMCI or EGRI models, we will see the worst of it. That will put us in the right front quadrant of the storm which is historically the worst area of the hurricane for winds, rain, flooding and isolated tornadoes. If Isaac tracks into Louisiana or Texas we will have light winds and rain. We continue to watch Isaac develop and progress toward the gulf coast. Later tonight I will be posting hurricane preparedness tips for you and hopefully the picture will become clearer as to where Isaac will make landfall. The next update is due out at 4 p.m. We’ll update the blog then.