Hurricane Warning For Alabama Gulf Coast… 4pm Sunday Update

Good Sunday afternoon to you! Here’s the latest track from the National Hurricane Center. The new track moves the storm inland as a category 2 hurricane along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Hurricane Warnings have been issued for areas along the southeast Louisiana Gulf Coast to the northwest Florida Panhandle; this includes all of the Alabama and Mississippi Gulf Coast. The track has shifted a tad west, but would still bring the risk of gusty winds flooding rain and tornadoes to west Alabama Tuesday night, Wednesday and Thursday. This is a developing situation and could change over the next day or two as the storm becomes better organized. The storm could be much stronger at landfall than predicted by the National Hurricane Center. Dangerous weather conditions will occur well away from the center, especially east of the center. Here’s an update from the NHC:

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED…AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
FOUND THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM.  FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  THERE IS STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE SYSTEM…AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY AS ISAAC MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF…AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE…AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER…THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE  MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE MODEL SPREAD…THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD…IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 24.2N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 25.1N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 26.3N 85.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 27.7N 87.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 28.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 30.7N 89.5W 85 KT 100 MPH…INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 34.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND

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Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

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